Targets for Spot Plays.

[Carl]

Donno if I am the only one who thinks about these things, but do you guys who use spot plays set targets/goals for them?

For example, almost all of my spot plays fall into what I am going to call the "15-20" catagory. That is to say I would like a win percentage of "15-20 %" and an average mutuel of "$15.00-$20.00". For example, a "20-20" play would win 20% of the time and play an average win price of $20.00.

I do have a play that comes up a lot that is a "9-30" (wins 9% of the time, pays an average mutuel of $30.00) This is the play that picked up the PHA r1 h6 (my bolter) and PRM r8 h8 (my DQ) yesterday. I love/hate this play. I hate the hit rate, love the average pay. I keep trying to dis-own it, who in the phuck likes waiting around for a 9% win rate play to hit, and yet..... they keep winning and paying boxcars. What's a boy to do?

Anybody else set targets for their plays? Do you guys drop them if/when they fail to meet targets or if/when they stop being profitable?

later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

wow Carl...I don't have the fortitude for a 9% win play. Looking at Glens chart (144 loses in a row on 1 mil bets)I would be kicking screaming(and maybe crying) when I got on that roll.
I usually look to get 20 to 25% win. My best plays are 30% win with a avg mut of 17.00. they only get about 2-4 plays a day. Worth the wait though.

One thing I have found out..I run my queries for spot plays through the data for everything up to 30 day ago..if it is pos..then I run it just over the last 30 days to see what would have happened. If it is neg..I might watch it for a while or I might toss it..if it is pos..I check the data and if I like it...I start hitting them.

[Ron]

Carl;

I share your sentiment when it comes to those low % \ high mutual plays.

I've found the best way for me to cope with them so far has been to look at them along side my other plays that I keep seperate bankrolls on.

I have a high % \low mutual play bankroll and a medium % \medium mutual play bankroll.

When the banks with the higher % hit rates are showing a positive return during the times when the lower % plays are experiencing there typical dry spells, it usually reduces the anxiety associated with waiting for those boxcar payoffs to hit.

There have been many days when those 6 - 7 dollar win mutuals have absorbed the sting of my exacta , tri and longshot plays that went down in flames.

Ron

[Carl]

Thanks guys.

Always interesting to hear "how other people do it."

BTW, winning one out of 11 races (9% win percentage) really don't bother me that much. I kinda like see it as doing cold calls for sales, you certainly ain't going to sell everyone, and there is always another race around the corner.

The part that does bother me is that my 9% play(s) of course are not always 9%, they cover a range from 13% to 5% on any given month. And let me tell you brother, that 5% month is a long one in between drinks! As in days and days and........(makes the desert look like a water tank).

later,
Carl