fred4now
24th August 2002, 10:29.17 AM
Just some thought on a Saturday morning. If we are looking for overlays they usually are not the MLO favortite, at least for me. So let's look at how VI affects the return. For this test I used all races, top 4 K rating and Mlo greater than 1.2 times nVBET. Starting sample was about 50,000 races. I did this test in groups of 3 to give each group a large sample.
VI Win% ROI
all 15.70 -10.19
14,15,16 14.59 +8.22
17,18,19 14.57 +8.12
20,21,22 14.69 -7.97
23,24,25 15.58 -3.25
26,27,28 15.42 -5.31
29,30,31 16.01 -7.66
32,33,34 15.93 -12.12
35,36,37 16.02 -13.08
38,39,40 16.59 -14.12
41,42,43 16.23 -18.16
44,45,46 14.49 -27.27
47,48,49 13.20 -34.16
33&under 15.60 -5.84
34&up 15.86 -16.98
VI Win% ROI
all 15.70 -10.19
14,15,16 14.59 +8.22
17,18,19 14.57 +8.12
20,21,22 14.69 -7.97
23,24,25 15.58 -3.25
26,27,28 15.42 -5.31
29,30,31 16.01 -7.66
32,33,34 15.93 -12.12
35,36,37 16.02 -13.08
38,39,40 16.59 -14.12
41,42,43 16.23 -18.16
44,45,46 14.49 -27.27
47,48,49 13.20 -34.16
33&under 15.60 -5.84
34&up 15.86 -16.98