V.I.

[fred4now]

I ran some basic stuff over the past years data, all tracks, surf, distance.

rMLO=1

VI Win% ROI
<25 19.56 -28.14
>=25 and <30 25.37 -21.16
>=30 and <35 30.62 -18.24
>=35 and <40 35.27 -16.93
>=40 and <45 38.56 -18.01
>=45 46.34 -11.59

[fred4now]

and another one, not much luck on this HK.

rMLO=1

Without going into the math,

Win% ROI
nMLO>VI 31 -18
nMLO>1.2*VI 32 -18
nMLO>1.5*VI 35 -14

nODDS>VI 19 -20
nODDS>1.2*VI 18 -22
nODDS>1.5*VI 19 -20

[hurrikane]

Rick,
instead of using the MLO maybe try this.

If you are using HTR 1-4 for you contenders.
what happens if

Vi =40 (3/2) htr=1 (or K 1 ) then check if the nOdds or nMLO are overlay or underlay on the TC 1 horse. Not really sure there is anything here but in my confused head it seems there should be something to tie the volitility to the fav or TC 1.

As the volitility goes up (or Vi goes down) the K1 (or HTR1) should not win as frequently. that's the theory anyway. Only data will tell.

Thanks.

[fred4now]

Kinda weird, huge difference in the win rate and ROI stays the same

rHTR=1, VI=40
win ROI
nODDS<1.5 47.14 -11.78
nODDS=1.5 36.92 -12.20
nODDS>1.5 24.67 -12.91