4 Quarters

[fred4now]

Here is a small sample of bets made using the methods outlined in 4 Quarters over the past couple of weeks. I used HTR to select contenders and tried to get down to 4, if I had more than 4, I passed. First impressions are, I passed up some nice high priced winners by following the rules like use the highest ranked if you have 2 overlays. Also you can see if I just stay off the turf, I go in the black. Or just bet my TC1. This is across quite a few of the tracks that I play and I didn't spend very much time assigninig value or picking contenders. Although this is a small sample, it is positive enough for me to keep going forward and let my records dictate what to play.

[Glen]

Very nice Rick. Over the last few days, I've also been utilizing the 4Q's and have had similiar results. For fun, I'll see if I can create an odds line for WO and LS today and postem on the site. I really beleive that this is really going to "complete" a void in my game.

[hdcper]

I am missing something! What is the 4 quarters method? Did I miss it and how it works?

Any help would be appreciated.

Bill

[fred4now]

Bill, the book is "The Four Quarters of Horse Investing" by Steve Fierro. Basically what to do after you have selected your conteders. Glen and I have been doing some trial runs constructing a betting line. Mine I just use HTR basically making sure some of the important figures are in my top 4 and then assigning odds. I don't give it alot of thought, I've been making a line for 4 or 5 cards in about 10 minutes. I'm sure Glen is actually thinking about his.:D

[hdcper]

Thanks Fred appreciate the update, now it makes sense.

Bill

[tbrown]

Originally posted by hdcper
I am missing something! What is the 4 quarters method? Did I miss it and how it works?

Any help would be appreciated.

Bill

With me, it's all I have left in my pockets when I leave the track <G>.

[George]

Bulldog.....let me guess.....that's only because most tracks have a $2 minimum bet :)

[fred4now]

Up thru last night. Looks like I need to stay off the turf and only bet my TC1 and 2.

HK, yes I think the book is a worthwhile read.

Bets Wins Win% Amount Amount Profit/Los ROI
All 431 56 12.99% $862.00 $871.90 $9.90 1.15%
Sprint 296 40 13.51% $592.00 $595.40 $3.40 0.57%
Route 135 16 11.85% $270.00 $276.50 $6.50 2.41%
Dirt 377 52 13.79% $754.00 $792.50 $38.50 5.11%
Turf 54 4 7.41% $108.00 $79.40 ($28.60) -26.48%
Alw/Stk 81 9 11.11% $162.00 $145.80 ($16.20) -10.00%
Clm 238 31 13.03% $476.00 $474.80 ($1.20) -0.25%
Mdn 44 9 20.45% $88.00 $137.70 $49.70 56.48%
Mcl 68 7 10.29% $136.00 $113.60 ($22.40) -16.47%
TC1 99 20 20.20% $198.00 $221.70 $23.70 11.97%
TC2 96 17 17.71% $192.00 $241.50 $49.50 25.78%
TC3 107 8 7.48% $214.00 $168.10 ($45.90) -21.45%
TC4 129 11 8.53% $258.00 $240.60 ($17.40) -6.74%

[fred4now]

I keep trying to upload the txt file like I did before, but the numbers keep geting changed, will try again later.

Rick

[fred4now]

Thanks for the edit, had to run. Just want to try this one more time.

[Glen]

Fred,

Looks like if you played just dirt plays on TC1 and TC2 you might be around 1.30 ROI, correct?

[fred4now]

Yes, dirt and TC1 or 2 only

Bets 180
Wins 36
Win% 20%
ROI 25.39% or 1.2539

[Glen]

This is what I have so far...Wish I could "cut and paste" w/ BTK.

All Top 3 overlays, real and Imaginary wagers:
Bet Type..............#bets....Win%...Flat ROI...Actual ROI
Win......................43...........19.......1.2 1.........90
Place....................41...........34.......1.3 7.........98


**Since I am such an idiot w/ my money mgmt, I am showing a loss by dancing around and placing different amounts on wagers vs just flat betting...., but the figures look good if I just stick to a game plan.

[George]

Glen..........we are "on" to your game. You are just trying to find a surefire method to offset all those "signers". Plus, suspect you are going to write a book, "How to turn Flat Bet Profits into Tax Deductions". :)

[Donnie]

Hats off to Steve on a fine book and process. He is right! Hardly anyone reading it will actually apply the method, because it takes discipline, and record keeping is essential. But, for the first time in my life I am looking at the value of my plays over the fact that "I gotta play sumthin'!!" Amazing! Horses I woulda bet as contenders were thrown out because the value did not present itself with the bet. On Friday I caught a horse who paid $28.00, while tagging 2 losers. Two horses who showed value on Sat were bet on that reason, one paid 23.40 the other 18.00. Yes I had 3 other losers. So on those two days, 8 plays, $79 returned. I layed off a lot of races along the way...but those were either losing races or not worth the value.

A good read! Would definitely recommend it to those who have contemplated going "pro" which you will read is no such thing!

[hurrikane]

I agree Donnie. One of the few books written that really discusses value instead of handicapping. Very good for getting you to work the races instead of gambling.
Saw a quote the other day "a profit at the racetrack is only a profit when you spend it somewhere else."

That seems to be what Steve's book is geared towards.

[ronnie h]

where can you find the book ?

[hurrikane]

www.gamblersbookclub.com

also,
http://www.todaysracingdigest.com (I think they have it on sale for 35 right now).

Maybe from Steve himself

[hdcper]

Hi Everyone,

Just finished reading Steve's book and enjoyed it very much. Now if I could only come up with a 80% win rate in my top 3 or 4!

Anyway noticed book is available over at www.netcapper.com for $35.80(maybe the best price not sure).

Also I have quickly put together an excel spreadsheet with the various odds combinations and brief description of filters on one page. Again it most likely can be improved with boarders and shading but everyone to his or her own.

Look forward to trying this out,

Hdcper(Bill)

[fred4now]

Nice chart. Top 4 Prb%= 77% winners FWIW

[Glen]

Thanks for the spreadsheet Bill. Very handy especially w/ the rules listed on the bottom.

[hdcper]

Thanks for the postive feedback Fred and Glen.

By the way Fred, I just did a small sample of the rated factors in HTR(2990 winners) and Prb% was the highest win rate in the top four at 76.69%(2293 winners). However, dollars returned were $19,159 or ROI of .801(1.00 breakeven) if you bet all four to win without looking for overlays.

The highest ROI factor was EP, returning $20,559(.8595) with 1949 winners(65.18%). Was wondering if anyone has done a larger tests of these factors? Or maybe someone has found a combination of more than one factor that provides better win rate and\or better ROI. Maybe improvement can best come from using the HTR toolset and personal handicapping, but it would be nice to have the best automatic method starting point to keep handicapping at the 25% time frame that Steve recommends and use the rest of the time to set the odds line and monitor our bets and recordkeeping.

Any ideas?

Bill

[hurrikane]

the K factor in the new htr2k is very strong at the 'A' class tracks. Seems to taper off as the quality of the stock declines but in places like NY, Calif, Ky the top 4 K horses seem to pull 80 and even 85%(BEL) of the winners.

[fred4now]

Right now I just print out DOS nHTR >37 and DOS nprb% >=12. This will get you 84% of the winners. Sometime there are more than 4 contenders and then you have to decide to cross out a couple or pass the race.

[Glen]

From: 01/01/2002 To: 08/01/2002 Real Bets and Imaginary Bets
Portfolio: None Track:
Win Profitable Categories -- Comprehensive
Category Avg Profit/ Flat Actual Geo.
#Bets #Wins %BW %RW Odds Total Bet Loss ROI ROI %B Mean CL RollX
----- ----- --- --- ---- --------- ---------- ----- ----- -- ----- -- -----
All and MSW
59 15 25 52 5.8 118 86.50 1.73 1.73 5 1.037 90 8.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
All and Dirt and Female
83 18 22 35 5.4 236 51.50 1.38 1.22 4 1.014 80 3.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Double Underlay and Not MCL
38 22 58 58 1.1 89 4.80 1.23 1.05 5 1.012 80 1.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC2 and 3YOs+ and Not MCL
50 12 24 27 8.6 108 122.70 2.31 2.14 5 1.065 97 22.2
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Glen]

From: 01/01/2002 To: 08/01/2002 Real Bets and Imaginary Bets
Portfolio: Double Underlay Track:
Win Report
Avg Total Profit/ Flat Actual Geo. Roll
Type #Bets #Wins %BW %RW Odds Bet Loss ROI ROI %B Mean CL X
------ ----- ----- --- --- ---- ------- ---------- ----- ----- -- ----- --- ----
All 46 25 54 54 1.1 105 2.40 1.17 1.02 5 1.008 70 1.5
Sprint 27 16 59 59 1.1 54 13.90 1.26 1.26 NA NA NA NA
Route 19 9 47 47 1.2 51 -11.50 1.04 0.77 NA NA NA NA
Dirt 39 20 51 51 1.1 91 -6.10 1.09 0.93 4 1.003 35 1.1
Turf 7 5 71 71 1.3 14 8.50 1.61 1.61 NA NA NA NA
2YOs 5 3 60 60 1.1 10 2.60 1.26 1.26 NA NA NA NA
3YOs 3 1 33 33 0.6 6 -2.80 0.53 0.53 NA NA NA NA
3YOs+ 35 19 54 54 1.2 83 0.20 1.19 1.00 5 1.009 65 1.4
4YOs+ 3 2 67 67 1.1 6 2.40 1.40 1.40 NA NA NA NA
Male 28 16 57 57 1.1 56 12.20 1.22 1.22 NA NA NA NA
Female 18 9 50 50 1.2 49 -9.80 1.09 0.80 NA NA NA NA
Stakes 1 1 100 100 1.2 2 2.40 2.20 2.20 NA NA NA NA
Alws 13 8 62 62 1.3 26 10.40 1.40 1.40 NA NA NA NA
Clmrs 17 8 47 47 1.1 47 -14.00 0.97 0.70 NA NA NA NA
Mdns 15 8 53 53 1.1 30 3.60 1.12 1.12 NA NA NA NA
STK GR 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
STK NG 1 1 100 100 1.2 2 2.40 2.20 2.20 NA NA NA NA
CLF 7 3 43 43 1.3 14 -0.20 0.99 0.99 NA NA NA NA
NW3 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
NW2 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
NW1 6 5 83 83 1.3 12 10.60 1.88 1.88 NA NA NA NA
MSW 7 5 71 71 1.0 14 6.00 1.43 1.43 NA NA NA NA
C125 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C100 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C80 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C75 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C62.5 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C50 1 0 0 0 **** 2 -2.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
C40 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C32 1 0 0 0 **** 2 -2.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
C25 2 1 50 50 0.9 4 -0.20 0.95 0.95 NA NA NA NA
C20 3 2 67 67 0.8 6 1.20 1.20 1.20 NA NA NA NA
C16 3 0 0 0 **** 19 -19.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
C12.5 1 1 100 100 1.3 2 2.60 2.30 2.30 NA NA NA NA
C10 5 3 60 60 1.2 10 3.20 1.32 1.32 NA NA NA NA
C8.5 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C7.5 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C6.5 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C5 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C4 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C3.2 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C2.5 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C2 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C1.5 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
C1 0 0 *** 0 **** 0 0.00 ***** ***** NA NA NA NA
MCL 8 3 38 38 1.3 16 -2.40 0.85 0.85 NA NA NA NA

[hurrikane]

Interesting Glen. What tracks did you do this over?

[Glen]

Here is the list for Double underlay:
BTW, I still have another weeks or so of simulation plays to enter. Will report back later...

From: 01/01/2002 To: 08/01/2002 Real Bets and Imaginary Bets
Portfolio: Double Underlay Track:
Win Bets List
Profit/ -------------Running------------
Bet# Trk Date R# AmtBet Payoff Loss Total BW% RW% AvOd FlROI %B
---- --- ----- -- ------ ------ --------- ---------- --- --- ---- ----- --
1 LS 07/05 4 2 0.00 -2.00 -2.00 0 0 NA 0.00 0
2 LS 07/05 5 2 0.00 -2.00 -4.00 0 0 NA 0.00 0
3 LS 07/06 1 2 4.80 2.80 -1.20 33 33 1.4 0.80 0
4 LS 07/06 2 2 4.00 2.00 0.80 50 50 1.2 1.10 0
5 LS 07/06 4 2 5.20 3.20 4.00 60 60 1.3 1.40 0
6 LS 07/07 1 2 0.00 -2.00 2.00 50 50 1.3 1.17 0
7 LS 07/07 5 2 4.60 2.60 4.60 57 57 1.3 1.33 0
8 LS 07/07 6 2 5.40 3.40 8.00 63 63 1.4 1.50 0
9 LS 07/07 8 2 4.80 2.80 10.80 67 67 1.4 1.60 0
10 LS 07/10 2 15 0.00 -15.00 -4.20 60 60 1.4 1.44 0
11 LS 07/10 5 2 4.00 2.00 -2.20 64 64 1.3 1.49 0
12 LS 07/10 8 2 0.00 -2.00 -4.20 58 58 1.3 1.37 0
13 LS 07/11 1 2 0.00 -2.00 -6.20 54 54 1.3 1.26 0
14 LS 07/11 2 2 4.20 2.20 -4.00 57 57 1.3 1.32 0
15 LS 07/12 1 2 0.00 -2.00 -6.00 53 53 1.3 1.23 0
16 LS 07/12 6 2 3.80 1.80 -4.20 56 56 1.3 1.28 0
17 LS 07/12 10 2 0.00 -2.00 -6.20 53 53 1.3 1.20 0
18 LS 07/13 2 2 4.00 2.00 -4.20 56 56 1.2 1.24 0
19 LS 07/13 6 2 0.00 -2.00 -6.20 53 53 1.2 1.18 0
20 LS 07/13 7 2 0.00 -2.00 -8.20 50 50 1.2 1.12 0
21 LS 07/13 9 2 4.40 2.40 -5.80 52 52 1.2 1.17 0
22 LS 07/13 10 2 3.20 1.20 -4.60 55 55 1.2 1.19 0
23 DEL 07/16 4 2 3.80 1.80 -2.80 57 57 1.2 1.22 0
24 LS 07/14 1 2 0.00 -2.00 -4.80 54 54 1.2 1.17 0
25 LS 07/14 2 2 0.00 -2.00 -6.80 52 52 1.2 1.12 0
26 LS 07/14 3 2 3.00 1.00 -5.80 54 54 1.1 1.14 0
27 LS 07/14 5 2 3.00 1.00 -4.80 56 56 1.1 1.15 0
28 LS 07/14 6 2 4.00 2.00 -2.80 57 57 1.1 1.18 0
29 LS 07/14 14 2 0.00 -2.00 -4.80 55 55 1.1 1.14 0
30 HOL 07/17 1 2 0.00 -2.00 -6.80 53 53 1.1 1.10 4
31 HOL 07/17 2 2 4.40 2.40 -4.40 55 55 1.1 1.14 5
32 HOL 07/17 3 2 5.00 3.00 -1.40 56 56 1.1 1.18 5
33 HOL 07/17 4 2 4.80 2.80 1.40 58 58 1.1 1.22 5
34 HOL 07/17 5 2 0.00 -2.00 -0.60 56 56 1.1 1.18 5
35 HOL 07/17 7 2 4.40 2.40 1.80 57 57 1.1 1.21 5
36 HOL 07/17 8 2 0.00 -2.00 -0.20 56 56 1.1 1.18 5
37 HOL 07/18 2 2 0.00 -2.00 -2.20 54 54 1.1 1.15 5
38 HOL 07/18 4 2 5.20 3.20 1.00 55 55 1.1 1.18 5
39 HOL 07/18 6 2 0.00 -2.00 -1.00 54 54 1.1 1.15 5
40 HOL 07/18 7 2 0.00 -2.00 -3.00 53 53 1.1 1.13 5
41 SAR 07/24 3 2 0.00 -2.00 -5.00 51 51 1.1 1.10 4
42 CRC 07/28 3 2 3.40 1.40 -3.60 52 52 1.1 1.11 4
43 CRC 07/28 7 2 4.60 2.60 -1.00 53 53 1.1 1.14 5
44 SAR 07/31 3 2 0.00 -2.00 -3.00 52 52 1.1 1.11 5
45 SAR 07/31 5 2 3.70 1.70 -1.30 53 53 1.1 1.13 5
46 SAR 07/31 9 2 5.70 3.70 2.40 54 54 1.1 1.17 5






From: 01/01/2002 To: 08/01/2002 Real Bets and Imaginary Bets
Portfolio: Double Underlay Track:
Win Bets List



Summary: Number of Wins: 25
Number of Bets: 46
Number of Races: 46
Bet Win Percentage: 54
Race Win Percentage: 54
Average Odds: 1.1
Flat ROI: 1.17
Total Profit/Loss: 2.40
Suggested % of Bankroll: 5
Geometric Mean: 1.008
RollX: 1.5
Confidence Level: 70
Streak Analysis: Not Significant

[jackad]

What is a Double Underlay? Thanks.
Jack

[hurrikane]

Jack,
in the 4 Qs you assign odds to the top 4 contenders. A double underlay is (correct me if I'm wrong Glen) when 2 of the horses are underlayed and you bet (or don't bet) the other 2 as overlays.

[Glen]

Actually it is just my top ranked horse that goes off 2 clicks below the line I set for it.
Examples:

My line: 3-1
Goes off at 2-1 or less

my line: 5-2
Goes off at 9/5 or less

My line: 2-1
Goes off at 8/5 or less


In other words, a horse that I like best and so does the public.

[Glen]

2OP=2 overlays in the race, betting them both
3OP=3 overlays in the race, betting all 3
Underlay=Example: Set line is 5-2, off odds between 2.0 to 2.9.



From: 01/01/2002 To: 08/02/2002 Real Bets and Imaginary Bets
Portfolio: None Track:
Win Profitable Categories -- Comprehensive
Category Avg Profit/ Flat Actual Geo.
#Bets #Wins %BW %RW Odds Total Bet Loss ROI ROI %B Mean CL RollX
----- ----- --- --- ---- --------- ---------- ----- ----- -- ----- -- -----
All and MSW
73 18 25 51 5.2 146 76.20 1.52 1.52 5 1.026 90 6.4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
All and Alws
116 24 21 41 5.4 272 37.40 1.33 1.14 3 1.010 80 3.2
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
All and Turf and Male
36 7 19 39 8.8 92 44.80 1.90 1.49 5 1.045 80 4.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL 3OP and 3YOs+
33 5 15 45 14.4 66 87.80 2.33 2.33 5 1.062 80 6.8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Double Underlay and Male and Not MCL
30 18 60 60 1.2 60 17.60 1.29 1.29 5 1.015 85 1.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC2 and 3YOs+ and Not MCL
53 12 23 26 8.6 114 116.70 2.18 2.02 5 1.059 96 19.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Underlay and 3YOs+
33 15 45 45 2.4 66 35.60 1.54 1.54 5 1.027 90 2.3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------


The above info is based on a small sample and would be skeptical that the above trend will continue. But will continue to chug and plug to see what happens.

[hurrikane]

Oh, misunderstood what you were posting Glen. So, these bets, the ones you should not be betting are showing a positive ROI. Interesting.

Do you think the line is too soft or just small sample size? Are you making the line manually or automatically from some combination of figures?

[Glen]

HKane,

I am making a line manually and also using traditional handicapping methods (Past Performance).

I then just import the data into BTK and then it creates a report (back fitting) to tell me what my optimal betting situations are. There are a few longshots in there so the results could be kinda off. I'm just going to keep on chugging and plugging for another 30 days or so before I take this information to heart.

[Cliff]

Glen,

What is "BTK" ?

Thanks,
Cliff

p.s. - May be out at LSP simulcast pavilion some this weekend. Any chance you'll be out there?

[Glen]

Hehe...Should be BKT. Better Keep Track wager tracking software outlined in Fierros book.

[fred4now]

For those following the 4 Quarters, here is my latest results. This method is great and if I was going to retire tomorrow and sit here all day, this is what I would use. Even though there is a small flat bet profit across all types of bets, the real profit is in the subsets. Like betting everything but claimers.

I am going to stop tracking these using actual odds and see if I can figure out a way to get the same results with morning line odds.

This has produced steady profits for almost 3 months,
Thanks for writing the book, Steve.

[fred4now]

Well I have been slaveing away trying to automate a 4Q odds line from HTR data. I am trying to use MLO instead of actual odds and to make it tougher bet before scratches are known. I had been experimenting with the new nKpow and failed miserably. So last week I started using the nKrat as a basis for my line. So far the results are impressive. I am thinking as I type this that posting is one sure way to make the results go south:D Will get some more bets in going forward and post some results.

If nKrat win% is 29.66 with a -13.12 ROI and
nMLO win% is 29.58 with a -20.18 ROI
then there is 7% difference that needs to be capitilized on.

Just a thought.

[fred4now]

I waited untill I had 500 races in the bag going forward. So here are the result FATC (for anybody that cares). Using the same 4Q concept that I used with real odds but using MLO before scratches. I bet anything that was 6/1 or lower on my line and a 50% overlay. There were only 3 times with 3 overlays in the same race, I passed these. I rely heavily on the new K rating to make the line. All tracks, dist, etc.

The short version is
Bet $998
Won $1090.70
Profit $92.70
Bets 499
Wins 92
Win% 18.44%
ROI 9.29%

I have attached the long version, the report prints out nicely on 8.5X14 paper.
Custom2 is all A,B,C tracks and not D tracks