Which system would you bet>

[jackad]

I have been tracking two approaches to HTR data with the following results: One system shows a win frequency of 12.5% and an ROI of 49 cents on $2 bets. This system generates about 12 bets per day. The second system shows a win frequency of 39% and an ROI of 8 cents for each $2 bet, and generates about 30 bets per day.

Assuming these results hold true over a longer term, which system would you bet? Why?
Jack

[hdcper]

Jackad,

Very difficult question to answer. First you must consider the number of races that have been sampled for each type of bet, to determine the likelihood of each method's future success. Realize the necessary sample size increases as the win rate of the method decreases.

However, lets take a look at the things we know regarding both methods:

1) 39% win rate, ROI .04(4 cents per dollar) Results over 100 wagers

Return $208 for every $200 wagered , thus if the win rate on the next 100 plays drops to 37.5% breakeven occurs(any lower rate ends in a loss)

Average mutual slightly greater than $5.20($5.33)

Consider the largest payoffs in your sample, what happens if the largest one is not hit(negative ROI right)

Optimum bet amount = Edge/Odds or .04/1.50 = .0267 of your bankroll


2) 12.5% win rate, ROI .245(24.5 cents per dollar) Results over 100 wagers

Return $249 for every $200 wagered, thus if the win rate on the next 100 plays drops to 10% breakeven occurs(again any lower rate ends in a loss)

Average mutual slightly less than $20($19.92)

Again consider the largest payoffs, in this case might be a major problem if several large payoffs generating all the profits.

Optimum bet amount = .245/9 = .0272 of your bankroll

Depending on what you find and your sample size, tracking it on paper maybe your best bet. However, another option is to take a small bankroll and play each. Provides a good test and still lets you play for profits if success continues.

Hope that helps,

Hdcper

[tomcat]

hey Jackad, what kind of bet are you making? A high win% in a P3 or 4 may pay very well, although the roi on the win bet may be very low.

I love to find 2 of these in a race. The win bet stinks but the Exacta Tomcat Split many times pays well, because everyone over bets the top 2 favorites.

[Glen]

If you feel comfortable w/ both spot plays...play them both. Mixing in the higher percentage plays will help you deal w/ the dry runs of playing 12% spot plays.

[hurrikane]

not surprisingly, tomcat has explained the way I deal with it. Guess he must have rubbed off on me over the last year. :D

Jack,
part of the question is also, how much of bankroll are you playing. If you're at 2% (hope not!) then one day...30 plays and 12 plays..42 total....one bad day and your bankroll is wiped out!!!

hdcp has made a very good point....it won't take much movement to on either one to put you in the negetive.

curious what your sample size is..are you in access?