Day 26, Lone Star Race 11

[Glen]

Just wanted to repost so that all could notice I made an error earlier. Sorry for any confusion.


Reaching for a bomb...
#14-this lil jock is kicking some buttocks, and horse used to run well.
Alt #12 Kona Code-Pretty name. Sounds almost like my of my favorites Kona Gold. Actually the jock Gonzales (no relation to Juan Gonzales) is winning little over 19% on E horses.

4/23
Bet $46
Won $39.80

[George]

Tough to call. Like Cliff's pick #5 but won't copycat him.

Hard look at #1, #3, #9 none of whom have done squat at this distance but appear
to have a little edge in caliber of compitition they have faced.

Pick #9
alt # 1

6/25 -50 +77.60 1.55

[MikeDee]

looks like one of those LS calvery charges.

pick 3
alt 10

no need to mention my stats not in the running

[George]

While not a believer in "inside knowledge" did receive from a usually reliable source info that the #10 will run a big race in LS 11.

Not changing my pick, just a note of caution for anyone playing this race for real, would probably be good to include this horse in any exotics.

[hurrikane]

who knows...what a race.

will flip georges

#1
alt 9

[George]

dUH! Ran 13-6-11. Hope somebody here had the $117,000 tri:)
Superfecta only paid $3103 !!

[Glen]

Geeeezzzz $230 horse?!

[MikeDee]

This is what we need to Ken to speak on at the seminar. "How to pick the $230 horse"

[George]

Mike......apparently it's not too hard to pick! The probability of picking the exacta in that race was (110-1 * 45-1) about 5000 to 1. Somebody(s) bought ten $240 superfecta tickets with
13-6-A-A which brought their odds down to 8-1 in the super pool.

Would like to have whatever program they used:)

Have noticed several times this year at HOU and EVD a similar pattern. The big play is being done in the "super" pool because it is usually a hidden pool before the race.

There was a lot of "disiinformation" being passed around before that race about a "fix" and a big payoff. Thought I knew who it was going to be (#10). Was wrong!

[hurrikane]

Ohhhh..hate to here that word 'fix'. Wouldn't it be silly to fix a race and not bet the 115-1 shot to win..at least beat him down to 25-1. George, think your info was good or just talk. Interesting they knew it would happen in this race.

You gotta love his name....Purse Stealer

sure would like to have locked up that tshirt with this one.

[MikeDee]

that's what bothers me about supers, twin tri's and the like. The payoffs are so great that it overcomes the fear of getting caught.

Maybe it's time to ban all race track employes, jockeys, trainers and their employes from wagering. If you make your living at the track you can't bet at that track.

Other sports figures are not allowed to bet on their games, lets put racing in the same league.

[Glen]

Yeah, I was reviewing the horse race and noticed the only positive thing about this thing was that it was a TRN rank #2. However, not something positive enough for me to wager on. Looks like this young trainer just picked up the horse and did something crazy with it. Maybe someone to watch out for in the future.

[Carl]

Be funny to be a fly on the wall of an off shore book IF this was "one for the boys." I would think they would be the first to know about it, and that they are the one's getting the brunt of the "funny business" nowdays. I'ts a lot nicer to have your $200 bet on a 115-1 shot outside the pools than in. Probably worth a couple of G's minimum more outside, and the offshore don't necessarily have cover.

In the for-what-it-is worth department: the three tracks that ESB seems to rate at the "funniest" are BEU, MTR and GLD. They have $50 limits on them, and wouldn't take GLD at all for a while last year.

And they wouldn't touch DED this year. When I asked the race book manager why he said "Every winner goes off at 2-1 and wins by 10. You mean to tell me that there's not something funny going on there?" I said I donno, sorry I brought it up......nothing worst than a grumpy bookie.

later,
Carl

[George]

Hurrikane.........think a lot of people knew something strange was going to happen in that race. Three different people told me before the race that the "cajuns" had it sewed up. Thought they meant Ardoin. Never crossed my mind to seriously consider a Delta Downs horse that normally runs seventh or eigth at the worlds cheapest racetrack.

Don't think the race was crooked. None of the horses in that race had ever accomplished anything at the distance. Believe Glen is right, just a sharp young trainer picking up a bargain and placing it correctly. Probably should pay attention to this guy's future moves.

I do think the trainer talked about his chances too much before the race.