Loose on the lead

[MtKen]

been looking at a c90 #1 play for lo-odds horses & checking last weekend & late last week hit a streak where 10 c90 #1's under 5/2 that had 0! (clear lead) in at least the 1st call & weren't switching distances didn't even manage a place. Good horses to bet against IMHO.

[George]

MtKen.....been following your idea and seems to be holding up. Have added a check of jockey ability by rESP and combining the two ideas has been a good favorite elim tool.

I am not really an exacta player but have cashed 3 monsters ($500 +) in last two weeks by being able confidently to throw out the fav.

Have you done any followup??

[Glen]

Interesting statoid Ken. Maybe we can get massa to throw in the "!" in the export.

[hurrikane]

have been watching it also George. Looking very nice!

And so, has anyone heard form the Mt Man?

[MtKen]

I've quit tracking them, I just throw them out and bet against them if they hit <= 5/2.

I am leery of trying to beat the class droppers & those (!)'s that are shortening up, but lots of them come back at the same level & distance.

Good hits George---I'm still hoping to cash in on a bridgejumper, seems to be a few of them around lately. In your jock ESP db have you noticed any difference in jocks ability as they stretch out? Wondering if the ability to rate a horse makes a perceptible difference in the longer sprints and/or routes?

'Kane-Still kicking, haven't been doing anything real exciting lately. I think we need another monthly contest to stir things up on the board, in another month or so I could play scorekeeper again..I missed the Kee contest & haven't been following Kee too closely. Been doing lousy on the Bris contest.

[George]

Good to hear from you Ken. Figured you were busy either tying flies and/or still shoveling snow.

I ran jockey stats by distance/surf versus overall and could not see much difference.
Was simpler and could have more data by just doing esp and res for all distances clumped together (dirt only). Curiously the data for turf sprint and route is very similar to dirt, but currently am not tracking or playing turf using jockey esp/res stats.

Like Tom Browns approach using s/p on most turf.

[MtKen]

George:

Drove in a blizzard this AM & about 50 & sunny now---springtime in the Rockies:)

How do you like the Midwest? & how was Tampa---weren't you down there too?

Been obsessing about hi%-stuff & rebates---started a new play about 10 days ago & doubled my very modest bank so far, almost 1/2 the profit from the rebate. Had a terrible day yesterday but have hit 5 straight bets today. Watch out for those #1 k KM picks. Thinking I should be checking out the new K #1's with the old George K1 play.

In the 6th at SPT is a (!) quitter who's dropping from a Stakes race into an ALW, HTR class drop of -5. Won't bet against this one.

Like s/p turf too, wouldn't be suprised to see turf favorites > 3 s/p be tested as good toss outs.

[Glen]

Ouch Mt Ken...Don't tell me he is a "!" quiter...That came up as a stone cold lock of the day for me...But I didn't look at the PP....

[hurrikane]

Me too Glen. Even have him as a single in the P4. Nope he doesn't read Kens posts. :D

died. came second. Bummer. hate getting stuck with a 'B' horse comming out of the gate.

[Glen]

Ran like a it had stone feet vs a stone cold lock. Good thing HKane is that you might be able to catch a huge price on your B horse since 95% of the P4 players probably singled the stone footed creature...