Thoughts on Velocity Handicapping / Fr1 "Top"

[Ken Massa]

The new screen in HTR2001 is titled "PP's f/p/s Velocity". It contains a horse's race history in a unique format. It computes the entire spectrum of velocity feet-per-second (f/p/s) for each running line.

This screen might require some brain drain as the numbers are plentiful at first glance. But there are some deep insights that cannot be understood without this format.

Here are a few thoughts =

> When the horse exerts a "top" in both Fr1 and AP, he has given his maximum effort and will probably decline next out. A "top" is a cyclical best effort (the best effort shown on the screen).

> A new "top" in Fr1 / but a poor finish, is a sign of good things to come. The ultimate workout really; we often get longshots from Fr1 when the last paceline is used, you will get more if you notice the "top" from the last line.

>A/P irons out the wild fluctuations inherit with final time speed figures. Notice how most horses remain within a fairly tight frame and appear more consistent than speed figures would imply.

> A/P is much more reliable than speed figs for watching development in young horses. The numbers don't vary as widely- so subtle improvement can be detected even if the speed figures are not going up.

>S/P is a powerful indicator for Turf runners. Look for those that can consistently run higher S/P ratings than their grass opponents.

>When a fast sprint Fr1 (60.00+) is followed by a powerful turn time of 58.00 or more, the effort is outstanding from any horse. The finish is not important, you are looking a high potential thoroughbred that will eventually be tough and competitive.

Remember - all HTR velocity f/p/s ratings are 'scaled' toward today's distance and surface - this allows direct comparison for all pacelines. If we didn't make those adjustments, then the raw numbers would be like comparing apples to oranges for sprints vs routes, etc

[Glen]

I’m gonna ramble a little bit about the RS-POS/Jim Cramer version of early speed handicapping. RS-POS is based upon the belief that an E1 will always perform better than an E2, E3 and so on...We know this is true and we have profited quite well on Ev1. Having said that, an Ev1 today who was an Ev2 or greater in the previous race should have a better opportunity to win this race. Now that we have the f/p/s PP we can now play this angle.

One more comment about Ev1....
We all know if we bet all Ev1’s will we have an ROI of 0.92 across all tracks. Me thinks that most would kill to have an ROI that only loses 8 cents on the dollar. Let’s also assume the average Ev1 player will only lose 8 cents on the dollar. If we are slightly above average playing only Ev1 we should break even...maybe make a penny or two. Now if we work hard and become really good we should be able to inch out a fair profit, right? So stop playing all those other horses and jump on the Ev1 bandwagon...Makes sense to fish in the ponds that have fish vs those stocked w/ tadpoles and plankton? Ok, I’m off my soap box for now and will craw back into my hole...

[JimG]

Originally posted by Glen

One more comment about Ev1....
We all know if we bet all Ev1’s will we have an ROI of 0.92 across all tracks. Me thinks that most would kill to have an ROI that only loses 8 cents on the dollar. Let’s also assume the average Ev1 player will only lose 8 cents on the dollar. If we are slightly above average playing only Ev1 we should break even...maybe make a penny or two. Now if we work hard and become really good we should be able to inch out a fair profit, right? So stop playing all those other horses and jump on the Ev1 bandwagon...Makes sense to fish in the ponds that have fish vs those stocked w/ tadpoles and plankton? Ok, I’m off my soap box for now and will craw back into my hole...

How to make a -8% ROI a positive ROI...that is the question. Also, what is the win frequency? If it is less than 20%, a player will need deep pockets to overcome the inevitable long losing streak. Also, in your sample, did certain tracks fare better than others? Certain odds ranges? Of course, if we narrow down too much the statistical sample probably becomes less reliable.

It is certainly nice to start with a method that cuts the loss vs betting on the favorite in half, but if it is unknown what factors to add to EV1 to turn the negative ROI to a positive ROI, unfortunately it is another loser. If you are making a living off betting just EV1's..more power to you.


Jim

[Glen]

Over the last 3 years,
dry dirt
ev1
all horses
all types of races
19% winners
0.92 roi

The formula for success is to overcome the 8% loss....

There is 1 ev1 in each race. Just gotta figure out if it is a bet or not. Your average horse will win 12.5% with a -25%ish ROI. Where is the better place to start? Something w/ a
12.5% Win and -.25 ROI
or
19% Win and -.08 ROI?

The answer is simple as...Would you want to start a 125 yard dash with a 17 yard advantage with only 108 yards to run? It is a paradigm shift away from traditional handicapping.

But there are other factors besides Ev1. If you have a factor XYZ that yields 25% winners and -10 ROI, then that is great...Focus on those plays and figure out which ones are good vs bad.
That is my point...

[JimG]

Originally posted by Glen


The formula for success is to overcome the 8% loss....




I agree...and my point is if one must decrease the 19% hit rate by eliminating lower priced payouts (which are most likely greater negative ROI) to produce a positive ROI, then one must have very deep pockets as well as a betting psychology made of steel to put up with potential run-outs in the neighborhood of 30+ races.

However, if you can increase hit rate and increase ROI from your starting point, you would defintely be on to something that would work in the real betting world.

Jim

[George]

JimG.......agree with your comments but am compelled to back up Glen on his enthusiasm for EV1 or top ranked F1. I have played that factor sucessfully for over three years with HTR. My play has evolved from using it with trainer ranking and an HTR rating call ACL (avg competitive level) to playing it with the IMPACT programs early speed rank coupled with trainer and jockey run styles.

Settled in on using the IMPACT figures as I believe they more accurately rank the relative early speed without my having to analyze pacelines. In other words, IMPACT can assess pace better than I can, with no effort required on my part.

Have not maintained the 19% hit rate as my three year rate is only 13.5%. At an average mutuel of $17.92 that has been good enough to produce almost 21% roi.

Think Carl has come up with better hit rate and roi than that, but he isn't talking about it.

You are right that wagers must be balanced so bankroll survives some really long losing streaks. Requires good nerves and absolute confidence that the bad streak will be replaced with a flurry of "good things".

It can be done and after a while the confidence level becomes automatic.

[JimG]

George:

Thanks for the comments. I don't use HTR but have seen it in the past. I have no reason to disbelieve that Carl, Glen or yourself use Fr1 with great success. I think you all are the exception rather than the rule...even with users of the software...to have enough confidence in your methods to weather a long runout (losing 30+ in a row) and stick with it. Most horseplayers, myself included, would abandon the ship somewhere along the way. Here's hoping your methods stay profitable.


Jim

[MtKen]

Ken:

Good stuff as usual---Can you figure out a way to put a 'top performance' last out notation in the export? Or rate the horse's AP vs it's last 5 APs---top would earn a 1, 2nd hi a 2 etc. Maybe this would help with db form analysis.

George:

Great bridgejumper hunting the other day. Makes that F1 ROI look like small potatos:D

[huskermatt]

Glen,

If we were to eliminate EV1's who have been laid off greater than 90 days and EV1's that gain the rating off of a different surface i.e. (horse is rated off a dirt sprint and todays race is a turf route) how much closer would we be to a positive ROI?

[Glen]

Husker,

I personally don't like to play ev1 w/ >90 day layoff. But I think Hurikane does as long as the iTRN number is good. Some tracks will show a positve ROI on turf w/ Ev1. The modeler should be able to highlight those.

[Carl]

And after spending two years here db'ing, 90% of the time with Ev1's (sometimes Ev2's and Ev3's), I feel real good about them.

They are about the only part of HTR that I really know anything about.

Made a thousand today on a ev1 at SPT today, race 4 horse 7, so I am feeling especially good about them tonight.

Very good post by Ken, I go maybe even a little further and use >=4 rAP in some of my spot plays. I want them to have STOPPED in their last.

Any, Jim, this one's for you. Will get you up to "break even" with a few additional qualifiers, the rest is up to you. I just want to caution you that "publically perceived negatives" are far stronger that looking for "good things" about the horse, if you want to make money, and can stand the draughts.

I use Pl1 only, so my numbers will be different than most, but I'll do a run through to "break even" with ev1 in 52,546 races last year. And if any one has an Pl 1 db, I would bet that results are similiar this (they are for the patterns I actually bet/use anyway).

Some numbers will follow, anybody has any thoughts, please.

I am just posting because, like Glen, I feel that given a tool like "ev1" this game just ain't that hard to show a profit at.

[Carl]

By adding some more "early speed", let's add XF1 and EP1.

But first the "base", ev1 only one year of data all tracks Paceline 1.
*****************************
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report

ALL EV1'S IN DATABASE

Total Bets----------------------52546
Total Amount Bet----------------105092.00
Wins----------------------------10211
Pct.----------------------------19.43%
Amount Won----------------------94866.60
Profit/Loss---------------------(-10225.40)
Pct Profit Loss-----------------(-9.73%)
Avg. Payout---------------------9.29
******************************
Then the "pretty'ed up" version, as outlined above:
******************************
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report

RANK EV1, XF1, EP1.

Total Bets----------------------14569
Total Amount Bet----------------29138.00
Wins----------------------------3649
Pct.----------------------------25.05%
Amount Won----------------------28092.90
Profit/Loss---------------------(-1045.10)
Pct Profit Loss-----------------(-3.59%)
Avg. Payout----------------------7.70
********************************
And, if you want to make money, MAKE IT UGLY from here.

Here's a start for you in "Uglying" it, let's just add a Bad last finish (>=4)

**********************************
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report

EV1, EP1, XF1, nFIN >=4.

Total Bets----------------------7605
Total Amount Bet----------------15210.00
Wins----------------------------1631
Pct.----------------------------21.45%
Amount Won----------------------15493.00
Profit/Loss---------------------283.00
Pct Profit Loss-----------------1.86%
Avg. Payout---------------------9.50
************************************
And there you go Jim, instant "break even" from Ev1.

I hoped that helped.

Where to go from here? If your stomach can stand it, I would go "uglier" before "prettier", as Ev1 is a strong "long shot indicator".

For instance, one more ugly added (secret brewed ingredient hehe) and I am here with this same base pattern:
*************************************
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report

Total Bets----------------------2566
Total Amount Bet----------------5132.00
Wins----------------------------322
Pct.----------------------------12.55%
Amount Won----------------------6130.00
Profit/Loss---------------------998.00
Pct Profit Loss-----------------19.45%
Avg. Payout---------------------19.04
**************************************
It's a "good play" UNLESS you looked at it's PP's, then it would be clear to everyone why it is "unplayable (clear to everyone except the silly little ev1 horsey, who sometimes forgets to stop).

Good hunting guys.....

[JimG]

Carl...thanks for posting. With your "secret ingredient" posting you show a nice profit with a 12% win percentage over 2566 bets. What was the longest runout?


Jim

[Maxspa]

All,
While I'm becoming more involved with the testing of data, I think
it is also important to understand practical reasoning of why horses
run the way they do. Training horses has changed somewhat in the
last few years but we must remember that trainers are creatures of
habit and generally quite conservative. While they are always looking
for an edge, they have to see clear results that a new approach works
before they try it. A trainer's job includes barn management, feeding,
shoeing, a training regimen( sometimes individualized and sometimes
not), physical evaluation of the animals and suggested linaments etc.
(which varies with experience) and the veterinarian selection.
Let's get to the training aspect and why some EP horses run better
the second time off a layoff. Remember I'm talking about EP horses in
general not a specific animal. Horses often times have a particular style
of running due to training techniques early in their careers and some are
born with that style and no matter what the trainer does, this horse runs
best utilizing that way of running. In other words some horses can be
successfully rated and others perform better leading the pack.
Training of these EP horses can vary with the number of horses in the
trainer's care and the type and quality of horses he possesses. EP horses
will be better prepared if there is a horse in the barn with comparable
ability that can run just behind the EP horse. This is a perfect world for
the trainer but it doesn't always happen that way. Larger stables have
an advantage with this scenario. Oftentimes because this type of horse
is very difficult to rate, the animal will train alone. A series of these
workouts are not as beneficial to the animal to get him in top racehorse
form as entering him into a race will. Therefore the second or third race after
a layoff you have a horse that has been raced into top condition and is
ready for a top effort.
Considering the above mentioned variables, and not having the ability
to understand the individual trainer's idiosycracies, it's time to get back to comfortable
HTR research data to make our handicapping decisions.
Max

[hurrikane]

The king of ugly checks in! :D Nice stats Carl.
When I was doing spot plays ev1 in various forms was the best play in the book. you had to keep you're percentage of bank low enough to weather the loses but the wins were very exciting.

I mostly play exotics but am working on tourney play now and while ev1 isn't the only big number getter it is always in the equation. ALWAYS!!! For me anyway.

Nice thread though.
Alongs Kens line of thinking I was thinking of making a prat type sheet for EV/EP/AP.
Are there plans for the export of the fps screen or at least a print to file version coming out. Anyone think this would have value?

[Glen]

Hurrikane,

Are you going to the Orleans?

[Carl]

Longest runout is probably in the low to mid 40's. I don't keep that stat, and have a "low pay high percentage trainer Ev1 play" in the mix, just to break things up. It wins 35-40%, but pays crummy.

I know 30 losses in a row is not uncommon.

That's why I say "ugly as you can stomach".

Uglies are great because they get other "serious" players to view them as "automatic throwouts" and jack up the price considerably.

Some good uglies to check into with Ev1's are

1) Trainer win percentage 5%-10%.
2) 0% J-T trainer combos (with less than 20 times tried)
3) Long MLO.
4) more than 30 day layoff.
5) Beaten by a ton last.
6) Heated pace battle "expected to materialize".

BTW, my "I can do better" comment wasn't aimed at George's quote, i.e. "three year rate is only 13.5%. At an average mutuel of $17.92 that has been good enough to produce almost 21% roi".

That's pretty great, donno if I can beat that. I am more of a 12% winners man myself, and have to let the prices fall "where they may" hehe.

Rather my "I can beat that" comment was aimed at "-8% ROI" or "break even" ROI.

I can beat break even (I think, at least I could. But today is a new day, they are running around in circles again even as I post........).

Who knows, at least it is spring, good to be alive/see life come back up in the frozen north.

[MikeDee]

Hey Carl,

Thanks for the posts, quite a bit of information there, very interesting. Hard for many to keep the faith at a 12% win rate. But it's hard to argue with success. Especially long term success.

Nice Score at SPT!!!!

[JimG]

Carl:

Nice reply. Appreciate the information. Got me to thinking....I would imagine it is easier to stomach a 40 race losing streak if you are playing many tracks, since you may make dozens of bets in a day.

For those of us that only play 1 to 2 tracks though, a 40 race losing streak can really screw with your psyche since you may not cash a bet for 1-2 weeks depending on how many races are played.

I have really enjoyed this discussion with you, Glen, and the rest of the HTR gang. Goes to show there are many ways to win, lose, and to look at both concepts.

You db players keep it up. Maybe the rest of us will convert one day <g>, but I doubt it. If we did, your bombs would not pay as much<g>.


Jim

[Carl]

Mike, I had to wait out the longest objection ever to win the SPT one, so I got feeling really high afterwards. ALMOST like "found money".

Of course, the rider just fell off of my horsey in the OAK 4th about a half hour ago, so I guess things "even out".

Jim, I usually get about 50-70 plays a week across all tracks, so while a 30 race losing streak SEEMS like forever to me, it only takes place over three maybe four days.

And after two years of daily play, I am sort of used to the "draughts", but not quite. The tough ones (and they happen too) is to lose 30 in a row, win one that pays $7.80, then promptly lose 20 more. Had to buy my dog a flack jacket after the last one like that (but the dog don't seem to mind, and it beats taking it out on the wife and kids).

[Cliff]

Carl/All,

Thanks for the posts. Carl....FWIW, I also had the 2 horse in the 4th at Oaklawn. Wrote it off to experience as I also had the 3 horse in the 7th. That one pulled up lame. It's discouraging to see dashes all the way across the chart! Two (of four) bets for the day down the drain.

But, I'm new at this and hope you guys keep posting so I can pick up some pointers. Thanks for the ongoing help and nice hit at SPT.

Cliff

[Carl]

Either "great minds think alike" or "fools seldom differ".

I too was blessed with money on the #3 in the seventh.

Did you get trapped on the #10 in the 6th too? At least he was out there "for a little while" lol.

I really don't mind, as long as they are a price, "sooner or later every dog has his day". But not at OAK on the 13th of March for us.......

[MikeDee]

Carl- Once last year I dutched two horses in a race. One jockey fell off coming out of the gate the the other fell at the top of the stretch. :confused:

[JimG]

Originally posted by MikeDee
Carl- Once last year I dutched two horses in a race. One jockey fell off coming out of the gate the the other fell at the top of the stretch. :confused:


Sounds like to me you got double dutch _________. (You may fill in the blanks)


Jim:D

[Cliff]

Carl,

No, I didn't have that one. My other two for the day both had riders and 4 legs.....as far as I know. Haven't checked the charts yet.

Here's hoping "They run around in circles again tomorrow" and for something besides "DNF" in the charts.

Good luck!

[hurrikane]

Glen, I doubt I'll make the spring contest but am planning to make Orleans in the fall.