Late Runners in Fast Pace Races Overbet???

[Glen]

A continuation of our earlier discussion on fast pace races.


Definitions....
Fast Pace: nQT3>=20. For example, Three 7 Quirin point horses in a race
Avg/Slow pace: nQT3<=14. For example, One 5Quirin point horse and two 4 Q Point horses.


Sprints Fast Pace Slow Pace
RS Win% ROI Win% ROI
F 22.89% 1.20 37.50% 1.41
E 11.53 -29.96 17.45 -14.82
P 11.52 -13.70 12.86 -26.58
S 10.34 -34.71 9.58 -28.57
R 0 for 31 -100 5.83 -62.65

Routes Fast Pace Slow Pace
RS Win% ROI Win% ROI
F 16.98 -34.72 14.29 1.05
E 14.49 -16.21 13.40 -15.15
P 11.95 -22.45 18.18 1.11
S 10.53 -27.87 11.70 -9.20
R 5.56 -47.41 8.05 -51.32


Caution: The above data is based on a very small sample (All races run in the last 2.5 weeks).

But if the above data holds true over the long term, then yes, the public is very aware of potential early pace duels and they over bet the late running horse.

[Glen]

I’ve always heard that late runners only win when the early runners tire themselves out. I guess one person wrote that in a book and then everybody else decided that was true. But that makes no sense to me. So if you see a late runner earn a high speed figure does that mean he ran faster because the front runners slowed down??? I don’t think so...The late runner might “see daylight” or the jockey might push the horse more when he gets closer to the front runners but I think that is about it. IMHO, the late runner runs fast when
1) It is in condition
2) Has a good/fair trip
3) The jockey knows when to “fire”.

Again, IMO it comes down to the skill of the jockey of knowing having the timing and positioning down to say, “lets go” when dealing w/ sustained runners.

[George]

Nice chart above Glen. Will be interesting to see if it holds up long term.

Your assessment of jockey skill on closers is imho right on. I remember back when you and I were busy looking at jockey run style that most jockeys avoid even riding S and R types.
Jerry Bailey sticks out in my mind as he rides less than 3% of his starts on those types.
Also remember finding a few jockeys that flourished on S and R horses.

[Carl]

The joys of a parimutuel system......

[George]

Carl......not too sure "closers" in general are overbet. I agree with Glen that public probably overbets them when they perceive an early speed duel.

Leaving pace out of the picture, ran a test of trainer win percentage on nESD > +4 versus percentage on rRES = 1 in IMPACT db. The top ten early speed trainers averaged 43.4% while the top ten closer trainers averaged 49.6%.

[hurrikane]

Interesting Glen. Does anyone know how to test if a horse was +9 ESD...did he actually run +9 over the field?

[George]

Hurrikane...can't remember for sure, but once analyzed ESD points to be either 2 or 3 points to a length. Ken Massa once commented on the relationship but can't find it.

Based on that would be pretty easy to determine if horse actually ran to the ESD figure.

[MikeDee]

I thought it was 5 points to a lengh? Ken knows for sure

[hurrikane]

Only thing I remember was Ken saying +9 gave the horse an advantage. Outside of that I think he is only offering disclaimers....eh ken. :D