Penn National Race 8 5/23/01

[The Wizard]

I was looking over the card at penn and noticed the edge the 1 horse had over the 6 in pl-5 mode of 44 points and in the pl-1 mode it still had a 29 point edge.........and the 1 isn't the morning line favorite either he is listed at 3-1.............i can't remember ever seeing a edge like this in the pl-5 mode................just curious how many of these you guys have seen in your day ?..............also by looking to my trainer point system it looks like a cold 1-6 exacta.........:p :cool: :eek:

[George]

Wiz........rarely see that big an edge in htr points. Whats the old saying? if looks too good to be true?

Looking at the #6 in prat, only old horse in race, with an unusual pattern of runs a good race followed by a bad one. Never puts 2 together in a row. Just ran a good race so think exacta 1-6 might take a thud.

1/2,3,5 and 2,3,5/1 would raise my comfort level. Would also lower roi to where probably no value in bet.

BOL!

[Glen]

Nice advantage for sure. Think those 90 plus HTR consensus horses win something like 40 to 45% or more. Has a nice PSCN advantage too. #6 is interesting because he comes out of a key race and has a top trainer with him too. Think as long as both jocks both don't try and go for the lead and knock each other off you will have a good play.

Had MikeD run a test for me a while back where if you have 2 strong horses (nPRB>=18) where they had opposite running styles (Ev1 or EP1 and SP1) they were sometimes good bets as an exacta box at some tracks. Lots of ifs, ands butts in the above statement...

[The Wizard]

Thanks George and Glen for your insight into the race..........i'll probally let the odds dictate if i bet the 1 heavy or not.........not expecting 3-1 but would bet him probally 8/5 or better......george i like the other horses you gave also if there is any value there i will play them but looking at a majior win bet and probally $ 10 reverse exacta 1-6 ............if odds are right i will probally key him in a couple pick 3's and the daily doubles..............Thanks again guys................I love having the internet at work, but somtimes work interferes with my horses, Whats up with that !!!!!! :p :rolleyes: :eek: :cool: