Quirin speed points

[hdcper]

Hi All,

Was wondering if someone would run an analysis on their database regarding how many starters have a specific number of quirin speed points and of those horses at each point level how many won and the estimated ROI.

In otherwords, say we have 5,000 horses with 8 speed points and 20% win and have an ROI of .84. Would like to see this for all speed points 0 thru 8.

Thanks,

hdcper

[George]

hdcpr.......from a small data sample of 2000 races.....qpt,win%,roi

0***7.3***0.55
1***8.4***0.65
2**10.0***0.58
3**11.1***0.80
4**12.4***0.80
5**13.2***0.73
6**16.2***0.86
7**16.3***0.81
8**14.9***0.71

A larger db broken down by dist/surf/age/sex/# in field would be better measure.

***not sure why we have 0 qpt and sample does not add to 100%
***will look at it more later, think qpt 1 thru 8 is accurate

[huskermatt]

Dont think anyone can run this analysis but I would be very interested to know how a horse with 2 or more quirin points than anything else in a race do. I wouldn't expect a real great win percentage but I'm thinking ROI would be way above avg. A horse at decent odds that has shown some semblance of current form is almost an automatic bet for me under these circumstances
Thanks,
Matt Haney

[hdcper]

George,

Thanks for the feedback!! But I still want to know of those 2000 races how many horses had a certain number of speed points.

In otherwords, 8 pts horses win 14.9% of those races, but how many 8 pt horses were there and in how many races was there one(or more) and how many races did not include a 8 point horse. We need to compare apples to apples in this analysis.

By the way, is your ROI based on actual number of 8 pts horses in total or the actual 2000 races(even if no 8 pt horse was present).

Thanks again for the fast turnaround and anyone with a larger database, would like your feedback.

Hdcper

[George]

hdcpr......the win% is based on number of winners versus total qpt starters. Roi is based on dollars won divided by total starters for that qpt. Not easy to do the other counts you want but will work on it. Have a db from last year with 6800 races and will run it tomorrow.

Counts relating to earlier reply, approx 1700 valid races, qpt,starters,wins,$won:
0*****2487*****182****$2747
1*****3053*****258****$3983
2*****1858*****186****$2140
3*****2386*****265****$3833
4*****1371*****171****$2183
5*****1715*****228****$2511
6*****1322*****215****$2285
7******901*****147****$1453
8******455******68*****$649

[George]

Matt.......would require writing a program or doing a vba module to check 2 point edge. Was disinclined to work that hard until I checked a few days manually. VERY interesting roi on my manual checkout. Will write the program over the weekend. :)

[hdcper]

Thanks George, appreciate all the hard work!!!

Hdcper

[huskermatt]

Didn't expect you to have to go to all the trouble of writing a program to answer my question. I am still not a database handicapper, I prefer more of a hands on method but I do track my ROI (with a paper and pencil of course LOL) and I know this is one of my more successful plays. By using the handon method I am able to weed out certain horses that really don't meet the criteria that would be included if I just took the HTR quirin points for granted. Think you will find a positive ROI though especially if you don't use maiden races. Turf races will definitly have a lower win % but the ROI should stay about the same. I normally demand a QP edge of +3 for turf races due to the nature of turf racing. Anyway thanks alot George for all the efforts.
Matt

[HarryH]

I tried the following: look for races where 1 and only 1 horse had the highest Qpt; for a database with 14300+ races, sprints only:
Hi Qpt Nraces Win% ROI%
8 2000 18 -17
7 4000 18 -12
6 2200 19 - 8
5 1200 19 +0.1
4 350 15 -29
3 81 12 -21
2 12 16 -56
1 26 11 +53!!
Qpt=1 is interesting case of only 1 horse with Qpt >0, paid good prices
The slight profit for HiQpt=5 is a case of top Qpt horse not looking all that good==>> good odds
Also tried the above with additional restriction of next highest Qpt having 2 pt gap (i.e., if top Qpt is 7, next highest horse is Qpt=4):

Hi Qpt Nraces Win% ROI%
8 365 22 -22
7 380 22 - 4
6 280 26 -15
5 200 31 +75%!!!
Apparently, Qpt=5 does not attract much attention from the public!!

Also tried single point gap:
Hi Qpt Nraces Win% ROI%
8 740 22 -16
7 1200 20 -14
6 500 24 - 5
5 300 23 +20
Bottomline, though: these gems are few and far between

[huskermatt]

Few and far between they may be but here's one at AQU tomorrow

RACE 1) #2STORM MAGEST QP=7 next highest =4 Diane Nelson wire to wire!!!!!!!!!

[George]

Nice work Harry! What tool did you use to do that ??

Also please run for route dirt and route turf if you have time.
Thanks.

[HarryH]

I use a QuickBasic program that I wrote to analyze the export files.
One nice wrinkle to the above: for the single point gap, sprints only I further
restricted the top Qpt horse to rF1>1 ( not top Fr1 horse).
A point of clarification: my single point gap test actually is at least a
single point; I only test the Qpt-1 level and require that the count of
horses in a given race=0. So, this would also include races,
where Qpt-2 count=0, etc

Qpt nRaces Win% ROI%
8 400 21 -25
7 600 22 -18
6 240 24 +21 !!!
5 175 25 +34 !!!

[Dr.Larry]

Matt,

Your Post: RACE 1) #2STORM MAGEST QP=7 next highest =4 Diane Nelson wire to wire!!!!!!!!!

Check entries: #2 Storm Majesty with Nelson has 7 QP

#5 Stone Gold has 6 QP

Hope this helps.

[George]

Dr. Larry.......appears to be a difference between HTR2001 and old HTR on calc of qpts.
The new program has a 3 point gap between #2 and rest of field.
The stats Harry and I ran were from old HTR.

Matt....May not be valid assumption that the race will be "wire-wire" :)

[Dr.Larry]

You are right George.
Forgot, Ken wrote about the change in Q points in 2001
where everything should be more accurate

Have a great weekend !

[HarryH]

Single point gap(or more) Routes:
-Dirt Only-
Qpt Nraces Win% ROI%
8 184 19 -23
7 602 19 - 4
6 185 18 - 4
5 107 18 + 6
4 12 33 + 3

-Turf Only-
Qpt Nraces Win% ROI%
8 99 19 -12
7 189 16 - 8
6 73 14 -20
5 47 23 +30
4 8 13 -50

[George]

Thanks Harry! Makes a lot of sense and saved me some work :)

[hdcper]

Harry,

Want to be sure I understand the 1 point gap. Does that mean the top Qpt horse has and the next highest is 3?

Thanks for the clarification,

Hdcper

[HarryH]

In the above stats, for a Qpt=8, for example, the top horse is an 8 and there are no horses with Qpt=7 for a 1 point gap;the next highest may be 6, 5,4,etc. Strictly speaking, I guess this is not exactly a 1 point gap, but the other cases are rarer. A 2 point gap would have the next highest Qpt horses be 5 or lower. Is that clear?

[HarryH]

I re-ran the Dirt Route stats using exactly 1 point gap, meaning that for a single horse with Qpt=8 on top, and no horses with Qpt=7, AND one or more horses with Qpt=6:
Qpt Nraces Win% ROI%
8 94 15 - 42
7 408 21 +10
6 119 18 + 4
5 89 21 +27
4 7 29 + 4

[HarryH]

I re-ran the Dirt Route stats using exactly 1 point gap, meaning that for a single horse with Qpt=8 on top, and no horses with Qpt=7, AND one or more horses with Qpt=6:
Qpt Nraces Win% ROI%
8 94 15 - 42
7 408 21 +10
6 119 18 + 4
5 89 21 +27
4 7 29 + 4

[hdcper]

Harry,

Thought that was what you meant. After looking at my post about the gap, surprised you figured out what I was asking. Somehow I must have forgot to show the highest Qpt horse having a 5 compared to the next highest of a 3.

Was tracking your test this weekend and found horses fitting this Qpt condition did very well.

Thanks for sharing,

Hdcper