Follow up on Spot Plays picked more than once.

[Carl]

Last month, George asked me to let him know the progress of plays picked more than once with my daily spot plays.

By way of review, at that time I had found the following in going over my first HTR db year:

I had 5729 spot plays bets in total. They showed a 14% win percentage/45% ROI in the large database.
813 of these plays were picked out by two or more spot plays. These showed a 16% win percentage/101% ROI.
220 plays/horses were picked out by three or more spot plays. These showed a 20% win percentage/159% ROI.
76 plays were picked out by four or more spot plays. These showed a 26% win percentage with a 202% ROI.


Now for a quick summary of the last six weeks. Interestingly the trend is continuing. I am presently using 12 "ev1 based" plays, these sometimes cross and pick the same horse.
1) Overall, they showed a 25% profit over 743 plays.
2) They only showed a 12% profit with the 564 plays that were "single selection".
3) The 122 "double selection" plays showed a 71% profit.
4) The 38 "triple selection" plays showed a 13% loss. Statistical aboration I think.
5) The 12 "quadruple selection" plays showed a 93% profit.
6) The "picked more than four times plays (all seven of them) showed a 335% profit!
See below:


ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report

Total Bets 7
Total Amount Bet 14.00
Wins 4
Pct. 57.14%
Amount Won 61.00
Profit/Loss 47.00
Pct Profit Loss 335.71%
Avg. Payout 15.25

Thought it was interesting that my previous pattern of "plays picked multiple times having a better ROI and win percentage" holding up was interesting. Things don't always work out that way, wish I had a dolllar for every pattern that didn't hold up.......

later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

what I have found interesting Carl in my multiple spot plays is that I personally feel more automatic about them. don't know if you have incorporated the js/db that Glen and George are using in your spot plays...if not..check [access thred].email me...there may something here we all need to look at in LV..or not

[fred4now]

Very interesting Carl, thanks. After we talked about this last time I went back betting double on horses picked twice etc. My non mathematical thoughts on this: I f 2 people each has a spot play that shows profit and they share them each persons profit should increase. When running the daily plays you don't know which are the ones that are going to win or lose, so you need to play all of them. I f both plays cross and pick the same horse you needed to have bet for both plays for each spot plays win% and ROI to hold up. If that one loses it was just one of the 80% that are supposed to lose to get to the winners.

If anyone can make sense out of what I just said, you are as warped as I am!

[Glen]

Excellent and comforting news Carl.

[Carl]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

Anybody else run any tests to see how their multiple spot plays do? If anybody would like a step-by-step on how I run this test for multiple pick ROI, I will be glad to post same. Or if anyone has an easier way than I do (which involves creating new fields and tagging each play individually), would be glad to hear that also.

And Glen, I took a page out of your book and started posting my multiple picked plays over at The Grandstand the last couple of days (under Sql_squirrel). Think I am something like 4-for-8 with a 600% ROI. Hehe. Don't think those numbers will hold up, but you never know......

later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

Great job Carl. Careful...they see that continue and you will have the site beating your horses down to nothing.