Fixed Price racing here in two weeks!

[Carl]

For all of you who whine about your horse getting "bet down", whine no more.

The Brits are coming with Fixed Price betting. Here is the link, and a post about it. According to one of my Brit board buds, these guys are big in Britain and they will pay.

Barry Meadow, if you are lurking, may be a story in here for you. Don't think these guys will be fly-by-night Sport of Kings types. But whether they can survive MNR or CT morning lines making idiots is another story. Think they can get away with it at AQU, but TUP??
********************************************
"Anyone ever here of http://www.Bet247usa.com ?

Supposedly in the next two weeks they will be offereing fixed morning line odds on win wagers. Personally it seems too good to be true. They offer both thoroughbred and harness tracks with almost every track I have heard of offered. Here is their rules posted below. Any feedback would be appreciated.

Bets placed are win only

$300 max stake for internet bets, phone in for higher limit

In the event of a non-runner, stakes for that horse are returned. In this even, a rule 4 deduction will apply. After a horse has been scratched, the remaining odds of the remaining horses will be adjusted. This is the industry standard in Europe.

Odds are taken down 15 mins before race time."
***********************************************

I plan to try it.

[MikeDee]

Imagine a 10-1 MLO that gets bet down to 4-1 you like the horse and you get the 10-1 odds. Sounds to good to be true better sign up early before they run out of money.

[George]

Carl....makes my mouth water. Bet the cajuns at DED and EVD are out ordering new cars.

[Glen]

Excellent News Carl. Might have to have fish-n-chips tonight to celebrate.

[MikeDee]

here are the rules from the web site

1.Bets placed are win only
2.$300 max stake for internet bets, phone in for higher limit
3.In the event of a non-runner, stakes for that horse are returned. In this even, a rule 4 deduction will apply. After a horse has been scratched, the remaining odds of the remaining horses will be adjusted. This is the industry standard in Europe
4.Odds are taken down 15 mins before race time.
Grading
- price taken will be last show from our morning line
- takes approx 10 mins after race to grade
Bigger Races (ie Kentucy Derby, Preaknes, Belmont, Breeders Cup, etc...) will have bigger limits

Questions
in the event of non-runner stakes are returned Is this your wager?
What is a rule 4 deduction?
no betting after odds are taken down?
what is grading
what is last show from ML does this mean you get the odds at the 15 min mark, mlo odds or or your odds fixed when you make the wager?
prices are not posted until 10min after race?


:confused:

[Carl]

According to my Brit bud, 90% of the action there is off track/fixed odds.

But there ain't here. Many fewer races, they are much closer to the action.

Agree with George, think the Cajuns will be just one in a long line of "local talent" licking their chops over this one.

I have been food fighting a little (who me?) with a few posters on the sports board, I have basically taken the position that you guys have, we will eat them alive, never mind the inside stuff which a bunch of other trouble for them.

Their big hope I think is that all the backstretch boys get an account to load up on their "sure thing", cash, then blow it on other races. I can see that working out for these guys.

[Carl]

I might be able to answer a few of your questions.

"Grading" is the making of your bet offical, at that point the money goes into your account. This apparently takes place 10 minutes after the race.

A scratch is "no action", and the fixed odds on the other horses are adjusted accordingly (as they are now).

No betting 15 minutes to post/after odds taken down is I think to prevent them getting burned by the "steam horses" on the tote board.

[Carl]

So who knows?
********************************
"There is a bet247 in the UK and they seem to be a big business owning Littlewoods Pools, the biggest soccer pools company in the UK. They don't own betting shops, but have a telephone and internet sportsbook bet247.co.uk
I don't know if bet247usa is anything to do with bet247 I could find nothing on their site either way. bet247usa are based in Costa Rica, not the UK.

Bookmakers do take fixed early price bets in the UK on selected horserace handicaps. But not many of us make money on it, and bet365usa certainly won't be rushing into this market in the US."
***********************************

So hummmm.....................................

[MikeDee]

So there is no fluctuation of odds you simply get the mlo up to 15 min prior to post.

for example LRL R6 # 1 MLO 6-1, current odds at 16 min to post 2-1. But I would get the 6-1 wager?

[Bruce]

Hey, that could work either way. How many 10-1 ML shots drift up to 30-1. I'd be
pissed if that happened.
The way I read this is you're locked into the ML odds they post. I suspect this
would work better for favorites who tend to get bet down than longshots, who
tend to drift up (although of course, we have our bet down longshots, but who
can predict when THAT will happen?)
Or am I reading this wrong?

Is there a maximum of what you can collect? My sports betting Web site takes horses
but puts an 18-1 limit on win wagers and $250 limit on exotics. Yikes!

bruce

[MikeDee]

Well I' reading it the same way Bruce and your right it's a 2 way street. Puts alot more emphasis on setting your own odds line or looking at the nvbet vs and MLO and making a wager decision. But could be interesting, if you think it will go down play fixed and if you think will go up play a pool based account.

[MikeDee]

I just did a quick little study. I took the the m number which is a compound factor of PSCAN and POwer and then looked for last week races looked at every race where the nvbet was lower then the mlo and M was no 1 ranked. 59 winners 260 wagers -$29 net and a .94 ROI. Then I just recomputed the payoff based on getting the MLO +$192 net and 1.37% ROI

No handicapping just a simple query.

Works for me, where do I sign up:cool:

[Glen]

We're gonna be so RICH!!! Well, assuming they pay us our winnings...Starts in two weeks??? Well, might as well put in my 2 week notice today!!

[cj_rg2.0]

Originally posted by Carl
According to my Brit bud, 90% of the action there is off track/fixed odds.

But there ain't here. Many fewer races, they are much closer to the action.

Agree with George, think the Cajuns will be just one in a long line of "local talent" licking their chops over this one.

I have been food fighting a little (who me?) with a few posters on the sports board, I have basically taken the position that you guys have, we will eat them alive, never mind the inside stuff which a bunch of other trouble for them.

Their big hope I think is that all the backstretch boys get an account to load up on their "sure thing", cash, then blow it on other races. I can see that working out for these guys.

Carl:

When I've played in the UK "betting shoppes" they give a choice of fixed odds or the "tote." In my two days in a Ladbrooke's shoppe, I've seen the tote pay either higher or lower than the "fixed" odds.

IMO, a test to determine if long-term the ML is preferable is to look at a track's ML and see what "takeout" they build into the ML, as compared to the actual takeout. For example, if a ML of a track with a 20% takeout has ML's that "add up" to 140% then a ML bet would be an equivilent takeout of 28.6%.

Also, I can see a huge advantage to the ultra-chalk player. I don't have stats to back it up but it seems like even $ ML horses often go off at 1/2 or 3/5.

[Bruce]

Some answers I got back from them today.


Thank you for your E-mail.

1. What odds do I get when I play ?

We produce a fixed morning line in our sportsbook section. You can bet that line, you get that pay off, period.

2. Do the fixed morning lines move throughout the day ?

Yes they do, depending on the weight of money lines will move in and out. Example - If you bet a fixed M/L at 10.30 Est time at 6/1, by 12.30 pm its 3/1 , you will get paid out at 6/1. It's on a first come first served basis. We think there will be alot of action on the opening line at around 10 to 10.30 a.m. If there is a scratch pencilled in after you made your bet a deduction will be made on the pay off. If there is a scratch pencilled in before you made your bet no deductions will be made (its called a rule 4) This is industry standard in Europe. Please refer to the site for deductions.

3. Do you offer regular Pari- Mutuel Betting ?
Yes we do in our , in our racebook section plus many exotics.

4. Credit Card company won't authorise your money with www.bet247usa.com ?

We tell your CC company its an international cash purchase, if it is still declined. Try opening up a Neteller A/c which might be easier, there is a link on our site. Otherwise you can go to a Western Union office near you if there is any, get our company details from Banking info under WUnion.

We are working on Bank Wires at the moment, in the next 4 days it should be available.

If you have any questions e-mail us again.

--------------
p.S. i checked their Website. Limits on all forms of betting are 275-1. Not bad for everything but Tris. Certainly is intriguing. They are from Costa Rica.

Bruce..

[Carl]

Good posts guys, thanks.

Guess I gotta get me the Mikey number. I always thought it was too chalky, but at $1.39 return, I DON'T CARE.

Is it posted somewhere's Mike?

[cj_rg2.0]

So, Bruce, it looks like thay are going to make their own lines, eh? Maybe not as attractive as the track's ML?

[Eric]

Take a peek at what it will cost to receive your winnings:

http://www.bet247usa.com/bankinginfo.htm

[Glen]

Ouch...

If I understand the brits, they don't use pace handicapping there correct? If so, we might be able to make some nice scores even on lower priced (less than $10) Ev1 horses.

[hurrikane]

This is really interesting. Looks like it's a netteller transaction though. Pretty heavywithdrawel fees.
They are a little misleading. There is nothing here that says they are Brits. They just imply it. I have a funny feeling they are not. Which is fine...just misleading.
should be good for win wagers, maybe exactas, depends on what this $10 min bet is about. Total cost of the bet or is it the way it is called...10 exacta..ab/abcde = $80. Not devestating but could get costly. And do they set the exotic payoffs by the mlo? That could be very interesting!

[MikeDee]

Carl-

the M number is 53% of nPow plus 47% of Pscan. On another thread I posted how to build a ranking module if you want to rank this number or just use the highest value. There are no ties with this. It is very chalky, but not bad at finding contenders for tri's and P3's in the top 3 or 4 runners.

I would think that any of the strong win% htr numbers like pscan, htr, per and K and prob can produce similar results. I'm going to study it further, but it seems to good to be true, we have all seen highly ranked htr factor horses that have good MLO odds and then watched as they get hammered down to favorites. I think the vbet figure will point the way to the promised land.

I don't know......now I will have to make my fixed odds wagers in the AM, mutual pool wagers in the PM. Longshots at nite at MNR, CT and HOU. Why it hardly leaves me any time for golf.;)

[tomcat]

When Linda and I went to Goodwood, I couldn't find
any past performances, only breeding. I remeber betting an Eastern Echo colt in a Mdn race. The ML was 5-1 and I shopped the bookies and bought a win ticket at 16-1.
Didn't win.:(

[Carl]

The withdrawal fees are certainly a big concern/outrageous. Only saving grace, I do believe they gave you one free withdrawal a month.

But a bigger concern by far is that as far as we can tell on the sports bookie boards, they are not associated with the British 247.

So the big question at this point is "who are they"? I don't mind sending money offshore, but I want to know to who and what their track record is.

At this point I would say "stay away" until we find out if they have any money or experience behind them. They could be just some Yo's with a "build your own site" internet kit, and nada else.

Loved the concept though, that's why "rushed to post it here in haste". Fixed odds excite me.

If I find out anymore good or bad about them, will post back.

[MtKen]

In the rules Carl posted it said "our" m/l odds, not "the track's" m/l odds. That might make it a little tougher.

[Glen]

Well...Guess I better not turn in the 2 week notice quite yet...

Back to the Salt Mines...(BSm)

[hurrikane]

sent them an email asked they were associated with bet247...thier reply

Thank you for your e-mail.

Bet247USA is not associated with Littlewoods Leisure.

If I can be of any further assistance please e-mail me.

[MikeDee]

In the rules Carl posted it said "our" m/l odds, not "the track's" m/l odds. That might make it a little tougher.

or easier, another 2 way street, no reason to think that they can do any better then the track. Why bother as the wagers come in they will just adjust their line to compensate for bettors opinion.

My guess would be that it will be fast and furious as bettors try to capitalize on an apparent advantage and they recalulate their line to compensate.

[MikeDee]

I sent 247 the foillowing email
I have reviewed everything on your web site and I have some additional
questions just so I fully understand regarding withdrawals.

Lets say I use net teller and I make a depost of $300 from my checking account and lets
say that I am very fortunate and at the end of the month I have a balance of $1300 in
my account and I want to withdraw $1000 using my 1 free monthly withdrawal.

As I understand the rules 300 of this withdrawal would be done via net teller because it
came in that way and $700 would be sent to me via a internatinal cashiers check via UPS.

Since this is my 1 free monthly withdrawal do I pay any fees to obtain my winnings?

Lets contiue this one more step and assume I win another $1000 the following month and
my account again is at $1300 and I want to withdraw $1000. with my free withdrawal in
the second month. Can any of this be done via net teller since I already matched my inital
deposit and are there any fees for this withdrawal?

1 additional quetion. Have you had any problems with banks or savings and loans in the
USA acepting and processiing the internatinal cashiers checks you speak of?

Here was their reply

You can only get one free way of withdrawal per month. I myself am 90% sure that
we could transfer all your winnings back through Neteller in one go if you deposited
through Neteller. If not I will sort it out without any cost.

Neteller charges a small fee on deposit.

We also have an actual Credit Card processing system as well - this is where we limit
the withdrawal. If you do it this way there would be a charge for the remianing part of
the withdrawal for UPS.

We never have had any problems with our customers cashing our checks because they
are tailored for our American customers.

E-mail us again if you have any more questions.

Best of Luck
www.bet247usa.com

[Carl]

I would be very leary of sending these guys any money.

1) They rip off a respected British books name. Why? To establish credibility?
2) They copied a bunch or rules and format from e-horse. E-horse felt obligated to publically post that they "had nothing to do with them".
3) Nobody offshore (it's a small community) knows anything of them.
4) We keep asking/posting to them what tracks they are taking, their answer keeps changing.

I don't even think they are in business yet. I don't think they have ever taken any kind of a bet yet.

And I think they are in the Ponzi business. The money from postups can go a long way to fund a start up.

On top of this, IF they ever get it together, IMO horseplayers will kill them, period. First one or two out maybe gets his payoff, the rest of us get markers.

[MikeDee]

Thanks Carl - you know a whole lot more then I do about the off shore books since I have neve used one. Sounded to good to be true.

[carlton]

Having bet Fixed Odds both in the UK and the Caribbean, where I grew up, I'll venture to offer a word of caution. Those who believe that bookies go bust doing this would do well to visit any British racecourse. Every bookmaker drives a Bentley or a Roller. After six months of Fixed Odds betting, you'll realize how 'easy' it isn't.

Tattersalls Rule 4:

"Where a horse is withdrawn before coming under Starter's orders, or is officially deemed by the Starter to have taken no part in the race, stakes will be returned on the withdrawn horse and winning bets will be subject to deductions in accordance with Tattersalls' Rule 4(c). The rate of deduction will be based on a published scale.

[MikeDee]

Hi Carlton Welcome to the board. were you at the HTR seminar last year?

[Carl]

He was indeed Donnie, and funny too.

Welcome Carlton, hope to see you in Vegas again this year buddy.

[MikeDee]

Hey Carl - any new info on these guys?? They sent me a email today with the following info.

Starting on Saturday 2nd March 2002, we will be offering fixed live morning horse betting lines across the phones from 10.00AM EST.

Internet action for horses will be in 6 days time with 2 options from
WWW.BET247USA.COM
a.. option 1:
Pari-Mutuel Betting

Full track pays off up to 275-1
Our internet software can take Quinellas, Trifectas, Daily Doubles etc.
We cover 85% of US tracks for Pari-Mutuel Betting


a.. option 2:

Fixed Morning Lines

10.00am EST, Fixed Daily Doubles, Match Bets, Quinellas etc.
10-15 Fixed Odds Races per day. 20-30 races on Saturdays!



We have fixed lines on 9 races tomorrow.
Here are two of the races with the odds for tomorrow's fixed line betting:

RACE 11 GULFSTREAM PARK THE RAMPART

HORSE NUMBER ODDS

1 20/1
2 11/1
3 8/1
4 15/8
5 9/4
6 13/8


RACE 9 FAIR GROUNDS BAYOU BREEDER'S CUP H.

HORSE NUMBER ODDS

1 9/4
2 5/1
3 2/1
4 14/1
5 3/1
6 4/1
7 9/4

[MikeDee]

Did a quick comparison of mlo and vb. there is a entry in FG 9 and could not figure which was which since they did not post program no or PPO so I assume the 1-7 is PPO. Form my perspective nothing to get excited about in either race the runners with a positive 247-vb, don't interest me all that much.

TRK R# 247 ML nVBET P# PPO 247-vb
GP 11 20 15 9.6 1 10.4
GP 11 11 12 9.8 2 1.2
GP 11 8 10 6.8 3 1.2
GP 11 1.875 1.2 2.3 4 -0.425
GP 11 2.25 3 5.9 5 -3.65
GP 11 1.625 2 3.3 6 -1.675

FG 9 2.25 3 4.5 2 1 -2.25
FG 9 5 8 16.1 3 2 -11.1
FG 9 2 2.5 6.9 1 3 -4.9
FG 9 14 8 10 4 4 4
FG 9 3 2.5 3.7 1A 5 -0.7
FG 9 4 6 9 5 6 -5
FG 9 2.25 2 3.4 6 7 -1.15

[Glen]

On a side note....I noticed some of those off shore books offer match races. Since nPRB in HTR is the most accurate factor (maybe MikeD number might be better?), could we just play the one with the higher nPRB and come out positive over the long term?

[MikeDee]

Glen How does the match race work? Do they set the match? between 2 horses in a particular race?

[Glen]

Mike, this is from www.wsex.com. Not sure how it works.

HO 1 3/2 (LEVECHE/TOTALLY WILD) VS (BEMA/DANCING BLUES)(A'DUCT:8) (3:00 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points Money Line
3001 (LEVECHE/TOTALLY WILD) PICK -115 Wager
3002 (BEMA/DANCING BLUES) PICK -115 Wager

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HO 3 3/2 GUILLOTINE VS (LASTING SENSATION/MOON BIRD) (G'STREAM:9) (3:30 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points Money Line
3003 GUILLOTINE PICK -120 Wager
3004 (LASTING SENSATION/MOON BIRD) PICK -110 Wager

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HO 5 3/2 (QUEST STAR/QUEST) VS (SPINNING TABLES/MARASCA)(G'STREAM:10) (4:00 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points Money Line
3005 (QUEST STAR/QUEST) PICK -120 Wager
3006 (SPINNING TABLES/MARASCA) PICK -110 Wager

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HO 7 3/2 (FOREST SECRETS/HAPPILY UNBRIDLED) VS SUMMER COLONY (GPX:11) (4:30 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points Money Line
3007 (FOREST SECRETS/HAPPILY UNBRIDLED) PICK -120 Wager
3008 SUMMER COLONY PICK -110 Wager

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HO 9 3/2 (WERBLIN/PELIRROJO) VS (FONZ'S/COTTONWOOD COWBOY) (S'ANITA:5) (4:00 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points Money Line
3009 (WERBLIN/PELIRROJO) PICK -125 Wager
3010 (FONZ'S/COTTONWOOD COWBOY) PICK -105 Wager

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HO 11 3/2 (EUCHRE/FREEDOM CREST) VS (FUTURAL/FANCY AS) (S'ANITA:9) (6:00 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points Money Line
3011 (EUCHRE/FREEDOM CREST) PICK -115 Wager
3012 (FUTURAL/FANCY AS) PICK -115 Wager



Here are a couple of sites that talk about off shore books:
http://www.theprescription.com/
http://www.sportbookreview.com/

[Carl]

I'll post your e-mail on the sports boards Mike, see what comes of it.

Nobody has said anything about it.

All the horse matchups as far as I know come out of Vegas, from the guy that does the Marion card http://www.marioncard.com One of my board buds in Vegas knows the guy and said a month or so back he was coming up with something "new", but that is the last I heard.

Glen, I spent a few hours on the matchups, didn't try Prob as a factor. I was looking at race shapes/bad jockeys mostly, didn't find anything I liked. Unfortunately, you can't get back matches for a db as far as I know, so you have to stay on top it. As far as I know, the "matchmaker" uses sheets (not pace) to make his matchups, and I think he is very good.

[Glen]

Just playing the top nPRB% horse from saturday would of yielded 4wins out of 5 plays (one scratch). Maybe something to look at down the road.