Projected Times

[RayF]

Does anyone focus on the projected times located on the Velocity Plus page? If so, how do you use them? I have yet to cash a bet based upon them, and their placement between the FPS rankings and the actual FPS numbers makes it more difficult to read from one section to the next. It seems as if the rankings and their corresponding numbers would read more coherently if the projected times were not between them.

Just a thought, not a compaint. I am pleased and excited by HTR2001, and look forward to each upgrade.

Thaks in advance for your imput,


Ray F.

[George]

Ray.......agree with you on placement. They have been in that order for a very long time and I suspect KM has either never been asked to move them down or has never had time to reprogram because of developing new things.

There are some race types where the final furlong and turn time figures give you the answer to a race. I could live without the projected times but have a vague memory of Ken saying that area is used by either Tommy C or Mike Mayo. If that is true doubt they will be removed :)

[Donnie]

Ray...just an FYI...Ken told me once he had no faith in those numbers for anything...but he had subscribers who wanted them in, so they were installed and stay. Maybe a switch of columns wouldn't be too far out of line for a request....?

[Glen]

Me thinks the projected times are good for "off distances" like 5.5, 6.5, 7.0, 8.5 and up.

Bu the problem playing just off projected times is that it is too mechanical cause it is based upon running lines. And how often do horse run exactly like they do from a pace line. It is nearly impossible. Best to look to factors within the times. ie the velocity figures ie F1, F2, F3 to find pace matchup advantages.

[huskermatt]

Actually the projected times are extremely useful IF and I stress IF you are good at selecting pacelines. The projected final times are rarely useful though.

But I have found that the projected times are fairly reliable when attempting to gage the pace of a race and pace pressure.

Once again you must be aware of what to look at and what to ignore--as both are equally important. For instance, many times an "S" horse will be projected as the leader at first call. Obviously, this is a bad selection of pacelines or a bad running style designation. This is also a sign, more often than not that the "S" horse in question ran against a killer pace and if not facing murderous fractions again in todays race may NOT run back to the paceline selected.

Another thing that sticks out like a sore thumb in the projected Beaten Lengths and Times section is this.
BL-1 BL-2 BL-F
0.0 2.0 0.0

This scenario shows up VERY often and usually involves a horse who is coming off a big win and will be running today at a short price. What this generally indicates is that the horse faced very little pace pressure and was able to take FR2 off or in other words coast through the most important part of the race with little or no pressure. These types are a bet against every time if they are going to get pressure today (which generally is the case as evidence by BL-2) . Normally I will try to find a different paceline for this type.

There are literally hundreds of things to look for on the Velocity Plus sceen of this nature. If anyone is interested in discussing it e-mail me at skersrule8@aol.com.

This is the only screen I use in my handicapping and have been doing pretty well for myself.
Matt Haney

[George]

Matt........would moving the projected times down to bottom of screen bother you ??

[huskermatt]

NOT A BIT George

Personally I don't use fps #s

[Ken Massa]

With a quick click of the mouse = Projected Times have been demoted to 3rd tier. F/P/S numbers moved into 2nd section.

Updated HTR2001 available Monday. Newsletter available then too.

[George]

Wow! ask and receive :)
Thanks Ken.

[hurrikane]

ask and receive? Ok...how about a bomb in the P4 today! :D

[RayF]

Ken,

Thank you, and the other members of this forum, for your imput and response to my suggestion regarding the placement of the various segments of the velocity plus screen. It again demostrates the difference between HTR and other like vendors.

One of the benefits of the new allignment will be that both the fps rankings and numbers will be visible on the screen without having to page down to see the numbers. This will save many keystrokes while using a laptop at the track. With the new allignment, those of us who use the fps rankings and figures as the basis of our handicapping can easily toggle between the various paceline options.

As long as I'm rambling, I also would like to endorse the new paceline option 4. The outcome of most races can be explained in terms of options 4 and/or 5, with option 1 displaying an accurate indication of current form and trainer moves. A wonderful work in progress.

Thanks Again,

Ray F

[Ken Massa]

Appreciate the nice comments Ray. Suggestions for HTR2001 more than welcomed. The last suggestion I had from George was that I mispelled "Velcocity" in the pull-down menu. Got that one fixed in a hurrry too. He's easy to please.

Projected times have no more value than the standard feet-per-second ratings. However, when translated into real time, the outcome may be different than A/P because of the final fraction length. That is why Glen mentioned those distances as possibly useful with a Proj Time chart. Some people are more comfortable handicapping with time comparisons than f/p/s so I leave it in there. Even though the 'translation' to time and BL can make for some unusual lengths charting on the projections. This will happen when Sprint-Route pacelines are used.

Velocity handicapping requires thoughtful analysis.
For example: Fr1-2-3 =

HorseA: 59.00 : 57.50 : 51.50 : AP = 56.00:
HorseB: 57.50 : 58.00 : 52.50 : AP = 56.00:

Which horse do you like at 6.0f?
Projection has them dead equal.

Which do you like at 7.0f?
The A/P doesn't change, but the projection will favor HorseB at 7.0f
Is the projection correct and "B" has the advantage?

In the long run, horses like "A" will make more profit for us at 7.0f because they will be underbet on the assumption they are going to fade. Runners such as "A" have greater flexibility to ration their energy. The amount of energy saved or expended in Fr1 is far more meaningful than the other two segments.

[Glen]

Last 7 months of data from So Cal, NYRA, LA, and FL.

Lets define an EARLY RUNNER by a horse who has a better Fr1 vs Fr3 (Fr1<Fr3). Example Fr1=3 and Fr3=6

LATE RUNNER: Fr1>Fr3 Example: Fr1=6 and Fr3=2

7 F
Non Maiden
AP 1
Early Runners
30.37%
-9.88 ROI

7F
Non Maiden
AP 1
Late Runners
22.99%
-11.89 ROI