National Averages

[Val]

Is there a source for national and/or by track information on median win/itm percent for jockeys, trainers, categories (claim success, S-R, etc)?
Thanks for any input.

Val

[Ken Massa]

Val, you are probably overwhelmed with all those % in the trainer reports - and it is sometimes confusing to know what is a strong winning rate on its face.

Because trainers and jockeys compete in typical fields of 7 - 12 horses, the normal winning rate for any category will reflect that demographic. Below is a basic guide to help you sort the wheat from chaf with any jockey or trainer or sire win% statistics. We want to see more than 10 starts starts before passing judgment though.

50% outstanding (if 11+ starts in the category)
40% strong
30% very good
20% above average
15% average
10% slightly below average
05% weak

Ed Bain has a smart rule of thumb he uses when assessing any such statistics, he calls it the "4/30 rule." Ernie attended his seminar in Reno and told me about this and I hope he will chime in here to elaborate. The "4/30" rule = [minimum 4 wins and at least 30% winners]. If you are scanning the t/j stats, then keep the "4/30" in mind to locate positive scenarios.

[Glen]

Like KM said, it all depends on field size. But on average your average horse/trainer/jockey will win about 12% and have a -.25 ROI. Something that I use to help break down all the numbers stuff is to use symbols “+” and “-” to designate positve/negative stats.

ie
Win%: 12%=0, 18%=+, 30%=+++, 6%=-
ROI: -.25=0, 1.10ish=+, 1.50=++, 2.00=+++, -.50=-1

Examples
12%/-.25 ROI
Rating: 0/0

18%/-25 ROI
Rating: +/0

24%/1.25
Rating: ++/+

6%/-80
Rating: -/--

[ERNIE]

Val: You can find out more about Ed Bain at WWW.EDBAIN.COM ......He is a little hard on speed handicappers (Imo) because for him trainer stats became a better tool than speed figures. He has a service to sell,but I found him to be very open,receptive(honest) and willing to share (talk horse racing).
His trainer data is more detailed than our Comp. trainer file, but I have used the ideas I learned at his seminar several times, My trouble is ....I try to handicap to many races and don't take the time to really look at the trainer file. There is a new file up on the bbs that has more infromation ( on main menu, Trainer/pedigree) this is a "pdf" file but worth looking at if you want to go in that direction.
Ed's course of action (in a very brief explaination) is to track/model how trainers do the first,second,third and fourth time(race) after a layoff,a claim,add lasix,blinkers or wraps on/off
He requires that the trainer have a min. of 4/30.........min of 4 wins AND a 30% win rate IN A MIN. OF 13 races...............EXAMPLE 4 wins in 10 races(40%) is not good......because it needs 13 races to get his play/attention........

Our data is reported on the last 365 days.........I'm pretty sure that his data goes back more than 1 year.......I will e-mail this to him and maybe he will respond.

Hope this helps.

[ERNIE]

I just surfed over to WWW.EDBAIN.COM to invite Ed to respond/comment about what he has/does here(maybe we will learn some thing from the master of trainer stats )
I see that he has finished his book and is offering a (short time) $10 discount to those ordering from the web site. I plan to order one right away. (if I can find where my wife hid my checkbook *&&^(*&%$%^.)...........

I was very impressed with he and his wife's open and eagerness to help every one learn a new tool for handicapping.......the fact that all his selections won except one (plus two that dropped to odds on and had to be passed) and the fact that they gave me free food for attending the seminar kept me happy for the three days we were there.........

I do belive that you are on the right path......looking for something that the public ignores or has no way to find.
Love to give and get examples:
Looking at the comprehensive trainer report from a 4+30% stand point and inside information learned at the seminar ( "I.E." Jerry Bailey is a trouble jockey,any horse that he rides must over come the trouble that the jky finds/gets into)
To those who disagree: I can only say that if you like him,you make the bet.
Now off my soap box and give the example: SA SAT. 1/19/02 RACE 8

Siphonic(#2) had J Bailey up trained by D Hoffmans 44-10-23% in dirt routes......30-8-27% in STK races.

Labamita Babe(#6) with K Desormeaux up trained by Frankel 62-18-29% dirt routes....and 169-47-28% in STK races
Both horses were out of a key race and a tandem race(siphonic won last time)
Just from the stats #6 Is the bet(htr stats only go back 365 days ......the 4/30 is harder to find )
#6 won paid $ 13.20 ...............All of this may have nothing ti do with the stats and fall into the dumb luck group of racing stories.....truth is I had made the same decesion in the BC Juvenile Siphonic looked good but he had Bailey up.......That's getting to be a spot play......
Hope this helps..........

[ERNIE]

Waited to long to edit my last post:
All stats are from HTR'S Comprehensive Trainer report.

and Johannesburg won the BC Juv race Siphonic was third.

[Ed Bain]

Hi Val, Ken, and Ernie,
Ernie, it’s nice to hear from you.
Trainer Stats, an interesting topic.
I track the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th race after a layoff separated by sprint and route. I have the same four-step procedure for claiming trainers as well as debut trainers. But when you look at any group of statistics its important to filter or to categorize them to make proper sense of a statistic.
I have a betting stat. It’s called the 4 + 30. Ernie is correct, it means this trainer has produced at least 4 wins plus a 30% win rate on this trainer specialty move. I only place bets within this four-race window and only on this betting stat, the 4 + 30. I’ve accumulated Layoff, Claim and Debut statistics on every track in the USA and Canada since 1994.
For 2001 the 4 + 30 for every track carried a 20% win rate and an average win mutuel of $8.64. To reap the benefit of this kind of statistic there is a need to apply filters to eliminate some of the automatic losers but maintain the $8.64 average win mutuel, which is how I bet the 4 + 30. With this kind of stat, the important side to address is not that it wins 30% of the time, it’s how to address the 70% loss rate. Some trainers are better than others. As an example;
From the New York circuit, Richard Dutrow Jr. is a 4 + 30 on 2nd after a Claim – Route. He has 34 starts, 18 wins, a 53% win rate and an average win mutuel of $8.70. If you bet on an ROI basis for every dollar you bet on his 2nd after a Claim – Route, you get back $2.30 or if you bet all 34, you invest $34 and the track gives you back $78.20.
This is the advantage trainer stats have over any style of betting, percentages and profitability. It’s nice to know before you place the bet “I’m going to hit every other one of these Richard Dutrow 2nd after a Claim – Route and I’m going to average an $8.70 winner.”
I have a site with a sample of my report at www.edbain.com.

[Val]

Glen, Ken, Ernie -- and to Ed
Thanks for your insight and knowledge about the subject. Indeed I am looking for edge stats that the general public does not have access to and, generally does not consider.
I will also take a look at Ed's new work.
Again many thanks for the help -- this is the best part of belonging to this membership.
I am looking forward to meeting everyone this year at the LV conf.

[MikeDee]

Interesting posts on the subject of trainer stats. Just so you know I do have a module that can bring the comp trn stats in HTR into access. It is a semi-automated process, with a couple of quirks, but has all of the categories in the comp stats and most of Ed's categories mentioned are covered but they only go 3 deep on after claims and after layoffs, it has wraps on but I don't think wraps off is in there.

When I have tried to use them for handicapping many times you see races where 3 or 4 trainers will qualify. How do you deal with multiple qualifying trainers?

[Ed Bain]

Hi Mike,
On an average day, I get 11 4 + 30s to choose from. I apply filters and reduce that to 4 potential bets. One of the filters is multiple 4 + 30s in one race. I pass the race.

[ERNIE]

Mike Is the trainer module something you share ? If it is would you attach it to an email to the address below. I have been trying to figure out a way to model that file without doing it all by hand.

[Donnie]

I don't possess the skills to do it, but maybe someone here has a lot of skill in VBA and they could work the bugs out for us...?

Any takers? I am going to ask around work.

[Glen]

My limited experience playing these angles is that not only do you need
1) Good win%
2) Good sample size
but also
3) A good ROI.

Me thinks best results can be found w/ a win%>=20 and ROI around 1.40 or more.

To me a trainer that wins 30% say on class drop w/ .85 ROI is just doing what he is supposed to do. That is win on a low priced horse. But a trainer that has a win% of 22 and ROI of 1.50 is doing something that the public is not catching on to. Just my two cents.

BTW, an excellent book on this subject is Handicapping Trainers by John Whitaker.

Link to www.gamblersbook.com
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HANDICAPPING TRAINERS
by John Whitaker
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Designed as a study of trainers and their "patterns" which may help the thoroughbred handicapper identify a potential winning effort by understanding what's going on in a trainer's mind. This book explains why some trainers are more talented and successful than others in certain situations and teaches how to keep records on trainers, how to evaluate them, the role of jockeys. 152 pages, paperbound. 1990.
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[hurrikane]

Looks like Ed has a book coming out too. Not that familiar with Ed but I've been doing trainers for years, and so far his ideas makes sense to me.