km
22nd July 2011, 12:52.40 PM
Here is a summary of new items found in the HTR2 and Robot2 update.
Slash Favorite
Uncoupled favorite at odds 7/5 or less.
Tepid Favorite
Uncoupled favorite at odds of 3/2 or higher.
Compound Favorite
Favorites that are not Slash or Tepid. Includes favorites that are part of a coupled entry. Also includes favorites that were tied in the chart odds and races with two horses bet down to 7/5 or less.
PSF / Projected Slash Favorite
Pre-race rating that attempts to predict Slash Favorites before they happen.
None of us needs a lecture about the chalk! But we could use solid information about them to understand what is happening in today's thoroughbred sport. To study the chalk, I removed the 'noise' from the data and threw all ties, coupled entries and multiple low odds favorites into a separate box called "Compound Favorites". This allowed a separation into two groups with a 50/50 split between "Slash" and "Tepid".
"Slash Favorites" win 46% of their races.
"Tepid Favorites" win less than 30% of their races.
A huge dichotomy in results.
There is a lot to learn by isolating these two groups and I go into much detail about it in the E-Book. But the problem is --- it's all hindsight.
"PSF" are "Projected Slash Favorites". It is a unique rating in HTR that attempts to predict betting action (Slash Favorites) - not winners - BEFORE the race. Loads of implications with these horses. They will be discussed in detail at the seminar and in the E-book.
"k2" is a new experimental formula that tries to defy conventional handicapping
· Comprehensive rating that unchanged by scratches (static rating).
· Does not use paceline selection.
· Does not compute directly from final time speed.
· Does not use rankings from any factor.
· Does not use trainer or jockey directly in the formula.
· Absolutely no use of the Morning Line Odds.
k2 bypasses most standard handicapping methodology to try and uncover contenders and longshots that may not be apparent with other methods used in HTR or elsewhere.
Slash Favorite
Uncoupled favorite at odds 7/5 or less.
Tepid Favorite
Uncoupled favorite at odds of 3/2 or higher.
Compound Favorite
Favorites that are not Slash or Tepid. Includes favorites that are part of a coupled entry. Also includes favorites that were tied in the chart odds and races with two horses bet down to 7/5 or less.
PSF / Projected Slash Favorite
Pre-race rating that attempts to predict Slash Favorites before they happen.
None of us needs a lecture about the chalk! But we could use solid information about them to understand what is happening in today's thoroughbred sport. To study the chalk, I removed the 'noise' from the data and threw all ties, coupled entries and multiple low odds favorites into a separate box called "Compound Favorites". This allowed a separation into two groups with a 50/50 split between "Slash" and "Tepid".
"Slash Favorites" win 46% of their races.
"Tepid Favorites" win less than 30% of their races.
A huge dichotomy in results.
There is a lot to learn by isolating these two groups and I go into much detail about it in the E-Book. But the problem is --- it's all hindsight.
"PSF" are "Projected Slash Favorites". It is a unique rating in HTR that attempts to predict betting action (Slash Favorites) - not winners - BEFORE the race. Loads of implications with these horses. They will be discussed in detail at the seminar and in the E-book.
"k2" is a new experimental formula that tries to defy conventional handicapping
· Comprehensive rating that unchanged by scratches (static rating).
· Does not use paceline selection.
· Does not compute directly from final time speed.
· Does not use rankings from any factor.
· Does not use trainer or jockey directly in the formula.
· Absolutely no use of the Morning Line Odds.
k2 bypasses most standard handicapping methodology to try and uncover contenders and longshots that may not be apparent with other methods used in HTR or elsewhere.