Live money strategy

[njcurveball]

So here is what the live money contests have become. Someone sees a contest where they can buy multiple entries. They have the money and they buy a few.

In the very first race of the contest they bet their entire bankroll. For anyone who thinks a live money contest is a "true test", consider that by doing this they are guaranteed a spot in the top 10 (at least for now) and perhaps even will win off one bet.

In the so called "non true test" contests, you could bet the winner, be capped out and still be 3 or even 4 longshot winners away.

In the old Connecticut contests if you did this you would get 4,200 points. It usually took over 10,000 to win, sometimes approaching 15,000. So that is a bit of a climb for the heavy gambler.

So where does it stop? Is it good handicapping to buy 5 entries and hit a $20 horse? The person doing it barely won for the day with 10 bets and one $20 winner.

I know you will say "don't hate the player, hate the game." I agree, but it is frustrating to see the Management of horse racing choke the goose laying the golden eggs.

For anyone who says you can pick a longshot in the last race and win a "fake money" contest. I simply reply you have to be in position to win. In a live money contest you can bet your entire bankroll in the first race and not only win, but win by a wide margin.

Let's say his horse was in a bridge jumper race and in the last minute it went from 10-1 to 40-1. No catching him from there.

Some day when I am independent wealthy I will profess that I will win and through brute strength of bankroll, it will come true. If I buy 6 entries and bet all the long shots and one wins, I am in.

I hope the NHC never bows down to "needing to increase handle" for the finals. Handicapping tournaments should be for the smaller players. The ones who are the backbone of handle.

I stopped playing Monmouth contests for the very reason Mayo hinted to in his post. You can be in position and hit the last winner and still get passed. I need to take a course in betting heavy.

Donnie said it best. When you play a live money contest you need to look at the money as play money. Just bet it like Monopoly money.

I wonder what the players who forked over $400 a pop thought when they saw the big bankroll taking up the top spots. I wonder if they will come back. But I also wonder if Management really has a clue. Monmouth can draw 20,000, do they consider it a success to have 300 entries for a tournament like this.

I doubt it and I also doubt you will see 10 spots next year. Congrats to the big bankrolls. Bet it all in the first race! I like that strategy! Do it now, because after this strategy becomes common place with the big bankrolls, it will get to the point where a $150 bankroll will become $10,000 to win one of these contests. And for those who cannot bet the $150, they certainly will not be able to bet $1,000 or more.

Gone are the days when Management was interested in gaining a new customer, now they only look at a spreadsheet, click the formula field and pat themselves on the back.


Jim

[gregk]

Jim,

I enjoyed reading your post and have played in many live money tournaments, mainly at Delaware Park.
Monmouth's latest contest did not interest me for 2 reasons: I did not like the unlimited entries "idea" and they really did not offer much in value added with them taking out $3750 per NTRA spot from the pot. As the HTR community knows, most tracks are set up with 100% payback and the value added contest/trip to Sin City.
I would not be surprised if Monmouth does this again since they probably made a killing. It will be interesting to see if they do and keep the unlimited entries concept.
Thanks HTR for the ability to post and I enjoy the intelligent conversation. - Greg

[njcurveball]

I did not like the unlimited entries "idea" and they really did not offer much in value added with them taking out $3750 per NTRA spot from the pot.

This is basically just letting a rich person "buy in" to the Vegas final. If tracks choose to do this, then they should let players buy in for the $3750 and give the contest players a chance to qualify.

I am "old school". I use to play tournaments that only allowed one entry. I understand all about "beards" and such, but still it is a different person going to Vegas.

I don't know how many entries the big bankroll players bought for this one, but I do know it was more than the usual 1 or 2.

Simple math says they had 286 players at $250, that is $71,500. Adding up all the prices the total comes to $27,518.

If the 10 spots cost $3,750 each. That would make the return only 65,018. So they also kept out the money for hotel and travel costs. I guess they also took out for any food or papers as well.

Bottom line is that the contest return was less then 40% for anyone who did not join the NHC.

These tracks just are doing their best to choke the life out something that attracted new players and keep existing ones involved. And they wonder why handle is declining? The problem is much more obvious than high takeour.

Jim

[Mayo]

Jim,

Not sure if you are coming to Ken's Seminar. In my part of the program, there will be a discussion on buying mulitple entries and strategy in playing them. This will involve real money events and mythical wager contests.

As far as MTH contest. Most all of the revenue was paid out in that contest. The winner received 13 grand for first and other places were paid as well. You are correct about the $3750 per spot which was negotiated by the NTRA and MTH prior to the contest. MTH got some expense money for the free lunch tickets and did make a small amount of money on the handle. It was not a big money maker for them.

Hope to see you at the Seminar.

Mayo

[njcurveball]

Jim,

Not sure if you are coming to Ken's Seminar. In my part of the program, there will be a discussion on buying mulitple entries and strategy in playing them. This will involve real money events and mythical wager contests.


Mayo

Thanks for the invite Mike. I am sure this is going to be a great presentation. I have won tournaments using multiple entries. I have even done well in live money tournaments, but personally I hate the way they always turn out.

Nothing I hate more then seeing players go "all in" with real money. Nothing hates worse then going home broke after having a decent amount of money. And that eventually sours them from wanting to come back, not only to the track, but also to any contest.

Simple math said Monmouth added at least $50,000 to their handle which they could track on their cute little spreadsheet and since they did not have to come up with any money, they might just have it again.

Maybe in time it will turn out to be 5 or 10 guys coming in and buying 5 or 10 entries each. I don't see why they just cannot buy in to the finals for $3,750 if they choose to do it.

The way people qualify these days is far from equal. Someone picks a show horse for 60 days in a row. Another person bets all their money on a horse to place and a 3rd person hits a big Superfecta.

I think to qualify for the national tourney the contests should have the same format. The way it is run now, would be like qualifying for the U.S. Open playing pitch and putt or mini golf.

Jim

[NWearner]

It is a mystery to me why the NHC does not let people buy their way in. I believe that it would generate a much larger prize pool than they currently have without greatly diminishing the current qualifiers. The money that people are currently spending on airfare and hotels could instead go toward the prize pool. Is it one of those things that makes too much sense to implement?

[Mayo]

I am sorry I missed this post (have been working and not on the computer much lately).

In response, the player's committee has discussed this option many times. Although it makes sense in many ways, there are some traditionalists out there that want to keep this tourney exclusive. Some complained about the increase from 300 to 500 for 2011.

The biggest concern of allowing people to buyin is it could hurt some of the qualifying venues. They have also been vocal about this. We have the delimma of what price to set for the buyin amount?

I will tell you with the goal of trying to get to a much larger NHC purse, I am sure this option will come up again in future discussions.

Stay tuned.

Mayo

[NWearner]

Thanks for the response Mayo. I believe that the buy-in amount should be set at an amount that would result in players attempting to qualify via the other means first, and would only pay the fee in they really, really wanted to be in the contest and were unable to qualify via other means. There could also be a limited number of entries available for purchase, and a system in place to grant the purchase rights. If, for example, the NHC Tour were the system, that would automatically encourage play in other tournaments. I'm just thinking outl oud here.

The World Series of Poker charges $10k for the main event and has many, many satellite qualifiers. I wouldn't suggest charging $10k for an entry, but would think that $3-5k would do it with a limit of 100 entries available for purchase. This would keep the qualifiers strong, boost the price by a lot, and reward the devoted players who were unable to qualify, but still want to play in the NHC.

[njcurveball]

The biggest concern of allowing people to buyin is it could hurt some of the qualifying venues. They have also been vocal about this. We have the delimma of what price to set for the buyin amount?



It always makes me very sad to be involved in something where the people running it are so money hungry they cannot think for the long term. When I first started playing tournaments seriously the Sports Haven tournament was over booked. They were literally turning people away. It wasn't about how much we can track them betting or how we can cut expenses and give them 2nd hand turkey, it was about attracting players.

Most loved it. If you say "everyone" in this game you are a liar. Some cried and moaned about one longshot could win and blah, blah, blah. But one longshot never won and the names that won that tournament were some of the best players in the country.

So surely if you have overwhelming demand and the cream rises to the top, you just sit back and let the good times roll, right? The tipping point came when they started to take out Santa Anita races. "We cannot have the tournament players still here at 7, taking seats from our regular players".

First they removed the last race, then the last 2 and I think in 5 years they removed the last 5 races. So the players did what they wanted and left. Although many never came back.

They still were filling 250 spots with single entries when they decided they needed to track how much was bet and went to the live money. Now, almost 20 years later they cannot get 300 entries using their entire states on-line wagering system and allowing players to buy multiple entries.

They can always say we have more "live handle" then before, since before they did not track everything the players bet outside the contest.

Same concept here. The Monmouth players who saw one person buy multiple entries, hit one winner and sit for the day will be hard pressed to come back. Heck, the entire tournament had less then 300 entries for a track that could have 20,000 people in attendance. And that was with people buying multiple entries.

Sports Haven use to have 300 entries with about 500 people sitting in the Teletheatre! Yes, over half the people there were in the contest. And I assure you they were betting much more then the "regulars".

The biggest problem is once they alienate a player, they don't come back. We will see in 10 years how these live money tournaments are doing. The ones with the low buy in will always do well. That gets the Gamblers. I say the price point for that is somewhere between $100 and $200.

Now to make someone join the NHC and fork over $400, that is the true test. Maybe in 10 years it will be about 50 people buying multiple entries competing for 10 spots.

In the long run, not allowing the big bankrolls to just buy in hurts everyone. The price has been set, $3,750 for Monmouth so it should be $3,750 for them. No real question there.

Jim