PED

[Gambler]

Is the an age when NPED doesnt mean much? If a horse is age 7 and ped is 600. Does the ped mean much?
Thanks
ed

[km]

Probably not Ed, the race record speaks for itself at that age.

If the 7yr is trying something new, then it might have meaning, such a entering a turf sprint for the first time or extending to a marathon distance or a step up in class. After age 4, the PED is a good indicator of success if the horse is facing something new in terms of distance/surface/class. Typically though, he has already proven or disproven his pedigree rating with his career race record.

A 7yr will have an impact on the broader PED rating for its younger brothers and sisters to come. A horse able to continue racing at age 7yr is sound and probably earning well. That will be reflected in the PED for future crops. A high PED rating indicates there were a lot of sound and successful elders in the family.

[Gambler]

Thanks Ken
ed

[BEEGEE]

Ken,
Pedigree question on Race 9 on Feb 9
The #8 had a major jump in PED from a similar race on Nov. 13.
his rating went from 186 to 683
I assume the increase was because he is now a 3YO.
Can you please tell me if this is the reason --
and should I be careful with that number this early in the year??
Enjoying your GP blog.
GREAT JOB!!!
beegee

[BEEGEE]

Ken,
The race in the previous post was Race 9 on Feb 6.
sorry,
beegee

[km]

Good one Bob,

When you see a PED inflate like that, and it is not a Dist/Surf change, then click the [PED] button in HTR2 and look at the Sire / Dam Sire stats and the sample sizes.

In this case, it looks like a first crop for sire Badge of Silver and only 12 starters in Turf Routes. So someting big must have happened, probably some stakes winners at turf routes. Use Robot2 to hunt them down, search the sire with the Connections filter and only Turf Routes and click "Last 100" to get a list.

The most extreme example of this was the sire Street Cry first crop. His son Street Sense won both the Br Cup Juv and the KY Derby, and blasted the PED rating to 999, a shift of over 600 points if i recall.

At the time, some users questioned the smaller sample sizes and the validity of the rating. My conclusion was that this massive change is very important to note early on. Something good is happening and maybe we can catch it long before other pedigree publications which are more conservative and wait 2 or 3 years before a firm appraisal.

[BEEGEE]

Thanks Ken,
In this case I just looked at the PPX screen --
this horse won his last 2 races -
one of them was with the 186 rating at odds of 43/1.
beegee