TLC

[fred4now]

I think this has been posted before, but I can't find it. I know the stars are for likely contenders based on various factors. Does anybody remember exactly what factors?

[George]

The stars are based on PRB% field which is a consensus number. Can't remember exactly how much percentage equates to each star, but think around 10% each. A four star would be roughly a fourty percent chance if the 10% is right. May be a lower percentage.

[fred4now]

Thanks George, but sometimes a lower prb% horse will have more stars than a higher one.

[Ken Massa]

Fred4now,

George was essentially correct about the *'s in TLC.

Each * = 10% probability of winning, but the estimate is very rough and not entirely compatible with the HTR *'s. Remember that TLC was a custom program based on TomCat's parameters, so it should be a bit different. I have a similar * method on the Mirage/Bellagio handout in Vegas and would differ from these two. You should not rely on the *'s for anything more than contender selection and likely crowd preference. The **** and ***** are almost certain to be bet below the MLO as heavy chalk. If a 5* goes off at 2/1 or more though, they are excellent bets. A 4* over 3/1 is also a good wager. But it is rare to find either.

As you know, to get rock solid probability figures, use PRB% listed in HTR, which has uncanny accuracy between 7% - 23%. PRB% above 23 will win at higher rates. Prb% below 7 will win at lower rates. You can test this yourself with HTR4MSA and query a range for the nPRB field, then test for the actual win rate. You will be amazed how close it is. If you need help setting up such a test in Access, leave a message for MikeDee here. He may also be able to help you setup a test with the *'s. My last figures from HTR show the 5* winning about 47%. I suspect a similar win rate in TLC, but the ROI is below 1.00.

[fred4now]

Thanks Ken, I have ran nPRB% against actual win percent for the whole range and posted here awhile ago. Agreed very acurate. Was using the stars in TLC as contender selectors with some good results is why I asked. Good info.

[tomcatnaples]

In a study we did at Keeneland, a little over 70% of the exactas had stars, so they
became contender selecters for exactas and P3's.