km
17th November 2010, 12:00.22 AM
The time to start is now. If you are competing in the NHC (Jan) or HPWS (Feb) it is a major opportunity for a windfall and your preparation begins immediately.
I have written a four page article in the next newsletter on identifying and beating heavy favorites. Not just any favorite, but the most dominant ones. I will follow up on this in the Jan newsletter with adapting this to these contests and summarizing my findings.
For now, begin to look at every race with the same initial question: "how strong is the likely fav - and is it vulnerable?"
The HTR_TOUR header (or KM Screen in HTR2) is the first signal. Notice ==
= read the header first thing, how strong does is the ML fav? "Domimant", "Solid", "Vulnerable", etc. and understand what it means in terms of win%. This has been detailed in recent newsletters.
= does the favorite have any negatives on the Tour report? The more negatives present, the greater the likelyhood of defeat
= how deep is the "buzz" (positive factors); the more Buzz, the higher the probability of winning
= in the next newsletter , be sure to read the article and sub section: "the terrible twos". Even with odds-on favorites, there is a method to beat them which i detail but will not reveal in public.
= research, with Robot2, the probable tournament tracks for the strength of these favorites and find out what types of races, or situations they are most vulnerable.
This homework will pay big dividends on tournament day because you will be like a football handicapper with an injury list. Key injuries are critical to wagering point spread football; and beatable favorites have the same impact in horse racing.
If you can beat the chalk - you can walk the talk
I have written a four page article in the next newsletter on identifying and beating heavy favorites. Not just any favorite, but the most dominant ones. I will follow up on this in the Jan newsletter with adapting this to these contests and summarizing my findings.
For now, begin to look at every race with the same initial question: "how strong is the likely fav - and is it vulnerable?"
The HTR_TOUR header (or KM Screen in HTR2) is the first signal. Notice ==
= read the header first thing, how strong does is the ML fav? "Domimant", "Solid", "Vulnerable", etc. and understand what it means in terms of win%. This has been detailed in recent newsletters.
= does the favorite have any negatives on the Tour report? The more negatives present, the greater the likelyhood of defeat
= how deep is the "buzz" (positive factors); the more Buzz, the higher the probability of winning
= in the next newsletter , be sure to read the article and sub section: "the terrible twos". Even with odds-on favorites, there is a method to beat them which i detail but will not reveal in public.
= research, with Robot2, the probable tournament tracks for the strength of these favorites and find out what types of races, or situations they are most vulnerable.
This homework will pay big dividends on tournament day because you will be like a football handicapper with an injury list. Key injuries are critical to wagering point spread football; and beatable favorites have the same impact in horse racing.
If you can beat the chalk - you can walk the talk