Hole #3

[Glen]

A while back, KM report that a user had said that 50% of the time the 3rd hole horse in a trifector was won by the PSCAN horse ranked in the bottom half of the field. Well, I just reviewed some AQU inner track data. To make things simple, I assumed each field had at least 8 horses and noted the rank of the PCAN horse for the 3rd hole. If it had a PSCAN rank <=4 then it was considered a good rank. If it had a PSCAN rank >=5 then it was a bad rank.



Results as follows:
Last 139 races
3rd Hole
73 had a good rank
66 had a bad rank

Conclusion: Since many of these races did not have 8 entries...More like 5, 6 or 7 in those stakes races, I would safely say that yeop, looks like about 50% chance that bad pscan rank will get the 3rd slot. So if you are completing that tri ticket and are stuck on 2 or 3 pigs, take the plumpest piglet of the batch.

[tomcatnaples]

Glen, while you are at it, have you looked at the show horse characteristerics that
in fact do come from the bad half?
I remember Ken and Ben(at the Stardust) talking about playing closers in the show position a few
years back. It was, for me, one of the best trifecta tips Ken has ever given me.

[Glen]

Yeah Tom, the late runners have been very nice w/ big prices. Just scanned through some more AQU inner dirt data looking at 3rd hole. Good Early runners vs Good Late runners vs Bad early vs bad late. Early horse is defined at to have a better Ev vs LP. Example: Could be E1-8, P3-7, or S4-5.
Late horse defined as better Lv vs Ev. Example: E5-1, P5-4 or S9-1.

3rd Hole Good horses
Early Runners: 27
Late Runners: 44

3rd Hole Bad horses
Early Runners: 35
Late Runners: 24

Note: There were some ties...For example P4-4 Horses or S5-5 horses that I omitted.

Conclusion: At AQU, Good early runners are more likely to finish 1-2 or out of the money. Good Late runners are good plays for the 3rd hole. Bad early runners are better for the early hole vs bad late runners.

Also Note: Very small sample and this data is limited to just AQU. Other tracks will show different results.

[tbrown]

I remember an angle from Mike Pizzola (Sartin group) years ago - the #1 APV horse if it was also #1 3rd fraction, was an automatic in the show hole, but I remeber a lot of these guys getting up for place as well. Might be a derivation of that in HTR using class and LV.
I am in the process of re-building my database and will run some querys on this.
No real data to back it up, but it is an angle I have used for years, and had good luck with.