fun with nGL8

[MikeDee]

Since we couldn't get any files today I was fooling around with nGL8 and hit upon a dutching play that didn't do to bad last week (Jan 2 thru Jan 6). I looked at races at the following tracks where only 2 runners in the field had a nGL8 of 6 or better. Then just ran the numbers based on dutching them. 79 Races qualified.
Fac nWin nBet Win% aMut aBet aWon ROI
AQU 1 12 8% $4.00 $24 $4 0.17
DED 2 4 50% $8.50 $8 $17 2.13
FG 3 14 21% $5.67 $28 $17 0.61
GG 4 22 18% $15.25 $44 $61 1.39
GP 5 24 21% $12.40 $48 $62 1.29
HOU 1 10 10% $24.00 $20 $24 1.20
PHA 3 10 30% $8.67 $20 $26 1.30
SA 3 20 15% $18.00 $40 $54 1.35
SUF 4 12 33% $10.50 $24 $42 1.75
TAM 3 12 25% $7.33 $24 $22 0.92
TP 1 6 17% $3.00 $12 $3 0.25
TUP 5 12 42% 7.2 $24 $36 1.50
35 158 22% $316 $368 1.16

There are some nice mutuals here, may just be a fluke but may be worth looking into in a large sample.

Here are the results where only 1 runner had >=6 nGL8
Fac nWin nBet Win% aMut aBet aWon ROI
AQU 2 10 20% $4.50 $20 $9 0.45
DED 2 11 18% $7.00 $22 $14 0.64
FG 5 7 71% $10.00 $14 $50 3.57
GG 2 12 17% $5.50 $24 $11 0.46
GP 2 13 15% $5.50 $26 $11 0.42
HOU 3 13 23% $6.67 $26 $20 0.77
PHA 5 14 36% $5.80 $28 $29 1.04
SA 3 9 33% $9.33 $18 $28 1.56
SUF 1 8 13% $4.00 $16 $4 0.25
TAM 2 9 22% $4.50 $18 $9 0.50
TP 2 10 20% $9.00 $20 $18 0.90
TUP 1 12 8% 4 $24 $4 0.17
30 128 23% $256 $207 0.81

Lotta chaulk here as one would expect.

[Glen]

Thanks for sharing. Looks promising.

[hurrikane]

Impressive mutuals on the 2 gl8 dutch. Worth investigating further..you think

[MikeDee]

Tuesday nGLL8 dutch plays - let see if it does any good today
TRK R# nGL8 P# Fin Pay
PHA 8 6 3 out
PHA 8 6 5 out
TAM 2 7 6 out
TAM 2 7 9 1 $5.60
TAM 7 6 1 2nd
TAM 7 6 5 out
TUP 2 6 3 3rd
TUP 2 7 4 out
TUP 9 6 3 1 $3.80
TUP 9 6 5 out


Not so good to day win $9.40 bet $20

[Ken Massa]

Nice work Mike, thanks for researching the GL8. At Mike's request I am adding the "=" to indicate a "good effort" in each line of the horse pp's in HTR2001. Also will add a flag in the export for "good effort - last race" as well.

Don and Ernie also requested some additional items for the export in HTR2001. I will add all this and get the program up by Thursday night. New fields are listed below:

The first export HX1 to be appended with these fields below and named HX2 files.

Don's request
------------------
Workout 'days ago' for last 3 works
Horse Lifetime starts, win, place, show, win%
Horse 365 day, win, place, show, win%

Ernie request - for key race study
-------------------------------------------
Horse exits a key race last out (see below)

Ernie also requested all the elements of the "key" race computation, which I will do for him later in a separate export.

I'll add these to make query easier Flag = 1 if qualifies, 0 = if not
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
flag1 = if horse has more than 10 starts and a 20% or better lifetime record
flag2 = if trainer > 20%
flag3 = ran a "good effort" last out
flag4 = horse exits a "key" race last out (highly rated race) similar to DOS-HTR "key" race

A combination of flag3 and 4 might be interesting.

Definition of "good effort" is explained in the December newsletter.

[HarryH]

I have had pretty good results using nGL8 as a filter factor for spot plays involving Cr90 in top 3 having and either Fr1 or Fr3 =1, "high" PAR values for race, and nGL8> say 5 or 6 (don't want to give away all my secrets :-) ) Stats over 6 months have been running at 20% win% and ROI about 40% profit. nGL8 seemed to make a substantial impact on the win% by cutting out some of the flakier bets