iTRN

[Glen]

Been toying w/ the power of iTRN using 225 as a dividing point. Found this to be pretty significant.

Normally I like to throw out horses that won last race....I will now reconsider those who have a solid iTRN number.

Dirt races
Won last race
iTRN<=225
10.44%
-38.03 ROI

Same as above but
iTRN>225
18.79%
-19.34 ROI

iTRN is becoming a pretty solid tool...

[George]

Glen.......I have been using impact TRN > 250 in a spot play for a long time with pretty fair results. Hit the $85 GP horse you mentioned with it.

Play is:
All distance/surfaces/ages/gender
TRN > 250
nESD > 5
rTOT < 5
rMLO > 1 and rMLO < 8

Hits about 22% with 25% roi.
Only shows up around 4 plays a day for all tracks.

Would be interested in a run on large db by anyone or you might have some tweaking ideas.
Have tried to get hit rate up but when I do roi falls off.

[Glen]

Good one George. I have similiar results also on a small dB. Guess iTRN would make for a good guide/tool for form cycles using PRAT or any other PP trying to predict a bounce or trends.

[fred4now]

George ran your play on my db, came up with

6642 bets
21.48% Win
-4.33% ROI

[George]

thanks f4n!! pretty good numbers. My run was on 1478 races.

I hang in pretty well with this one by only playing when I have an overlay.
Think it could be tweaked (race type, track??) to be a decent bet them early
and forget them bet.

Have not taken the time to mess with it yet.

Agree with Glen that impact trainer number is pretty good starting point on
a query hunt.

[Carl]

I ran it on 50,000 race db, got similiar results to Fred.
******************************
rMLO >1 and <8, rTOT <5, nESD >5, nTRN >250.

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
Total Bets--------------------5733
Total Amount Bet--------------11466.00
Wins--------------------------1248
Pct.--------------------------21.77%
Amount Won--------------------11059.60
Profit/Loss-------------------(-406.40)
Pct Profit Loss---------------(-3.54%)
Avg. Payout-------------------8.86

********************************

However, got it to a little over break even ($0.07) by simply adding nFIN >=4, and with a little more goofing (adding ev1, routes only) got a pretty pattern.

********************************
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report

rMLO >1 and <8, rTOT <5, nESD >5, nTRN >250,
nFIN >=4, Dist >8, rFr1 1.


Total Bets-------------------361
Total Amount Bet-------------722.00
Wins-------------------------76
Pct.-------------------------21.05%
Amount Won-------------------865.10
Profit/Loss------------------143.10
Pct Profit Loss--------------19.82%
Avg. Payout------------------11.38
**********************************

[Rick]

Carl,
Try nFIN = 1

Nothing like 20/20 hindsight.
41 "nFIN" INTEGER Finish (this race) if Results are in

[fred4now]

George, if you don't mind me asking. What do you use for a parameter to decide if you have and overlay or not?

[George]

Hard question F4N. I don't have a "math" basis but do use the vbet odds on screen 4 as a guage. Will sometimes take one below the vbet level if everything I can see about the race is screaming at me that this is the winner.

I usually would not bet a vbet 2.5 if actual odds were 1.2
Would cheerfully take a vbet 33.3 at actual odds of 5-1 if my further analysis showed a good trainer/jockey pattern or if I saw something else really liked about the horse.

My preference is like the $85 horse at GP with vbet 8.2 and actual 40-1.

Carl........thanks for the db run. Looks tweakable. If you have impact linked to old HTR data try adding PER < 4 to that play. You may like it!!

Rick.......that nFIN = 1 is sure deadly on any query. Wish KM would set it before the race :)

[George]

F4N......I went off on a tangent above without stating the obvious. If playing a spot that produces 20% I want to get 4-1 or better. If playing one that hits 50% then need 1-1 or better. My point above was a try at explaining that I don't feel "locked in" to those numbers on each and every bet.

[Carl]

Turns out I used "nLFIN" though.

Here's the "finished first last" from that. They actually win less than I would have thought.
******************************
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
Total Bets------------------181
Total Amount Bet------------362.00
Wins------------------------35
Pct.------------------------19.34%
Amount Won------------------328.90
Profit/Loss-----------------(-33.10)
Pct Profit Loss-------------(-9.14%)
Avg. Payout-----------------9.40
******************************

Not really the ponds I go a fishin' in, I like them 12% winners areas, I feel more at home there.

[fred4now]

Just some further tests.

nTRN>250
nESD>5
rTOT<5
rMLO>1 and <8
rPER<4

3158 bets
24.07% Win
-8.57 ROI


nTRN>250
nESD>5
rTOT<5
rMLO>1 and <8
nODDS>=4

2708 bets
12.59% Win
-2.03 ROI


nTRN>250
nESD>5
rTOT<5
rMLO>1 and <8
nCLA=2

2622 bets
22.69% Win
+2.52 ROI

[Glen]

La Moola is in the claiming game...?