Emerald Winner

[km]

Just got an email from one of our subscribers, Gary Levin from NJ, Gary WON the Emerald tournament today!! Congrats Gary, please let us know more details when you get home.

I know there were many other HTR members at EMD today, please chime in if you have any news.

[jbw]

First of all congrats to Gary. The Emerald field is always a tough one. Great handicapping to come out on top there.

Re Delmar. Was not a full field. I think final # was 44-45. Players were much more conservative than in years past. Final results

Brian Chenvert Rogers, MN $10,160
Damian Roncevich Honolulu, HI $9,557
Corey Johnsen Grapevine, TX $9,188
Toby Turrell Solana Beach, CA $8,108
Duke Matties $7,896
First place received I think $40K; second $20K. Although 5 qualifiers I think Tour points were given to only top 4.

I saw and spoke with Tom Noone (Tour Leader as of Fri) today. He played in Las Vegas this week-end. Said he did not do well but did receive a few points about 600. Not sure who won.

If anyone knows any of the other contest results please let us know.

JW

[Mall]

If memory serves, the first time I met Gary he told me it was NJ curveball who introduced him to HTR, which might merit a spot on the couch in the fancy high roller suite Gary will be getting for the NHC, and perhaps even a cut of the gambling chips Emd adds to the $20k first prize.


Super victory Gary in what is one of the best, if not the best, of the qualifiers.

[njcurveball]

Gary is an amazing guy and one of the nicest people you could ever meet at the track or at any place else.

He actually introduced me to HTR and then after he stopped downloading, started hearing me say all the good things about it and started up again. He is one of the few people in this country who has actually read almost all or maybe all of the Sartin manuals and follow ups.

20 years or so ago I was walking through ACRC during Simulcasting and had just "joined" the Sartin methodology. I spot this guy with a laptop (the only one there with a laptop) and he talks to me like an old friend. I learned a lot from him and for a while we had our own Sartin group there nearly every night.

He sure deserves the win!

Congrats Gary!

[Donnie]

Nice job Gary!! You deserve it!!

[JoeK]

Way to go Gary! Nicely done.

[km]

Gary emailed me the details about his selections that won the contest at EMD -

The contest was August 1, 2010. I hit the 5th at Monmouth ( win at 30-1) and the 3rd at Louisiana Downs (place at 45-1). I also hit low priced winners and a place at Emerald Downs.

In the 5th at Monmouth Volatility was "21", Favorite1 was "F", Favorite2 was "F", Outlook was "wide open", ML Favorite was "Very Vulnerable" and Pace was "Fast"! The race was going 1 mile and a sixteenth on the grass for allowance for three year olds and up NW1X or statebred NW2. In other words - pretty weak horses. If there was ever a race that set up perfectly for a bomb - this was it.

I only had seven free bets and I was definitely betting this race! The problem was who was I going to bet.

When I looked at my sheet I saw that HTR projected a 47.1 F1 for #9 (14 was scratched which also had a 47.1) The next clsoest was #3 with a projected F1 of 47.7. My sheet also showed that none of the hirses could run to the par time for the race in any of the three fractions based on the HTR projections. Therefore, the only horses who had a chance were the best early or best late. I looked at the best early (#9 and #3) and the best late (#4, the favorite)

I determined from HTR data on my sheet that #9 had a lot going for it. It was running a second race after a layoff, was taking blinkers off, was dropping in class (-4), only had three negative factors (not bad for this field) had just run a top "PAC" race . A look at the past performances showed the horse was very likely to be in the hunt. The only real question was whether the horse could run in the stretch. HTR projected a 30.9 F3 for the horse which was better than every other horse that was projected near the lead in the race. Loking at the past performances and other horses in the race I felt that #9 almost had to win the race. Then I looked at the odds and saw 30-1! I was amazed. I expected to see about 6-1 or 7-1. It was an automatic bet for me. The horse sat a little off the pace and then showed his F3 ability to win by about one length paying. $62.60 and $22.80 which were both cap prices. BTW #3 ran 3rd combining with #9 and the second favorite for a $1700 trifecta.

Monmouth 5th put me on the leaderboard at #4.

Then came LAD 3rd. The race was average. Volatility was "30", Favorite1 was "C", Favorite2 was "C", Outlook was "mixed", ML Favorite was "Legit" and Pace was "normal". All of this means I have to really like a bomber to use my last free bet (I didn't save any because I knew I would really have to concentrate on Emerald once the races started).

When I reviwed the race I was really just looking to see if any of the high odds horses had a pulse. If not, I would quickly pass the race.

Then I saw #9. Today's race was a claiming $5k NW2 (bottom of the barrel). I noticed that #9 had just run a similar race, although moving from statebred to open company. HTR rated it +2 for class change which I feel is not bad. The F2 par time for the race was 24 and HTR projected #9 could run 22.9 for F2. Past performances showed the horse would be in the hunt for the first fraction. Then this horse along with a few others had an excellent F2. My sheets also showed #9 had a superior "early pace" rating while some of the other first fraction horses did not. The third fraction for #9 was slightly weak. I decided it was worth a shot at 45-1. The horse open up about five lengths in the stretch. The #9 was caught approaching the wire, but still paid $34.40 to place giving me my second capper and putting me in first place to stay.

I still had all ten races at Emerald Downs, but I did not see any races where high odds looked likely. I had about a $30 lead on second place.

Of course, the first race was won by a 9-1 first time starter. Thankfully, I did not lose any ground after that one.

The second race went to the second choice at 9-5 and the third race went to the favorite at 6-5 which I did bet and picked up a few dollars.

The fourth race I bet the #1 at 4-1 which ran second but was moved up on a dq. The winner that was disqualified was 12-1 so I got a really lucky break.

The fiftth went to the second choice at 9-5 which I bet. The sixth went to a co-favorite at 5/2 which I bet.

The seventh I bet a 9-1 which ran second to the 4-5 favorite. I made more for place then the winner paid for win and place combined.

The eighth the second choice won at 8-5 which I bet.

The ninth was won by a 7-1 which I almost bet. In the end I bet the favorite which ran out.

The tenth and final race I still had a $30 lead over second place. I decided to bet the second choice over the 1-2 favorite. The favorite won and my horse ran second.

I finished with $141.40 (because of caps) after starting with $64 in myhtical dollars. Second place was about $128.00. The rest were much less.

I won $20,000 and a trip to Las Vegas for the NTRA finals.

Gary L.

[Buckfan]

congratulations Gary !!!! Thanks for the nice synopsis of your tourney play. BOL in Vegas !

[km]

Gary will be interviewed about his victory on a Seattle radio station =

It will be on KJR - AM sports radio between 8 and 9 a.m. pacific time tomorrow (Sat Aug 7). Available on the Internet at www.kjram.com

(thx to GL for the info)