Donnie's 1950's System

[Ken Massa]

Jan newsletter on page 11 has a system test that was sent to me by Donnie. I didn't even use the workout-days rule on the simple thing and got a pretty good ROI with a 10,000 race sample. Gets much better when a trainer angle is added as you will read.

I'm making a custom export in HTR2001 that he can use to test the old system thoroughly and will include all the data items needed to get at the original rules. Will make it available to everyone courtesy of big Don ( and he thought he was going to keep this little gem a secret and use it win the contest!)

[Donnie]

....and you weren't gonna release that publicly until AFTER the contest...right?? LOL

After your short test, I am now really excited to test with other factors in HTR. Trainer was one area I was heading...if the horse is consistent and the trainer is consistent, recent form (workout patterns) should help tip in the right direction...kinda interested in the FR1 test that I am sure EVERYONE will be doing with this!! LOL

Thanks again Ken! I sure do appreciate it!

[Glen]

Cool angle Donnie. Thanks for including into the export Ken. Question: What would be better? >=20% Trainer or iTRN w/ say >=350 or 400 rating?

[Donnie]

Glen, one thing I was gonna try to do some research on is the trainers' specific percent by distance as found in the Comp Trainer report. I beleive some are good at conditioning a horse for a sprint while others excel at routes. If it is a consistent horse, in good form, handled by a compentent trainer for today's distance, what other factors will knockout the competition.

While on vacation over the holidays I thought of how I used to 'cap....pretty basic (hence, perusing the 50's books!!). Recency, early speed, trainer. Nothing else. Sizing up the competition (maybe the QP3??) will lead to some very solid plays, at some decent odds as well....?? Dunno.

BOL

[Glen]

Interesting and good point Donnie. Something that I've seen some positive data on is trainers who had thier horses leading at first call in the last race. Kinda like a hidden workout. Also as a side note, part of the RS-JKY thing I've looked at is how Jocks do w/ + Impact horses.

Some are solid like:
Corey Lanerie in sprints-->Has won 52% in the last 6 months.
Anthony Lovato in sprints-->Won 56%

And some overbet:
Edgar Prado in sprints-->Win 17.5% w/ -41.67 ROI

[Donnie]

Glen,
Are you using Total Queries, or crosstab queries to gain that info...

As Mike showed in Vegas, a crosstab could answer those questions easy enough for any meet or track, cross-tabbing the jockeys by their running styles to obtain their success rate... pretty hefty numbers there Lanerie and Lovato!

[Glen]

Hurrikane sent me something a while back where you could query all jocks by RS in a single click....Unfortunately, I did it manually one by one just by linking impact and msa tables.

[Donnie]

hey hurrikane---if you still got that, send it along...would love to take a look at it!

Thanks! Let me know if you need my address!!

[Glen]

Think HKane is out of town for a little while...

[TruForm]

I see you all are talking about work/outs so I just posted a work/out chart the gives a speed rate to a work/out good Luck

*******

http://www.handicappers-datamine.com/cgi-bin/UltraBoard/UltraBoard.cgi?action=Headlines&BID=1&SID=53303

[Donnie]

Looks like Hurrikane got access to a computer this morning...probably in some top secret location, tho!! :D

[hurrikane]

Hey Donnie..have that here somewhere in the muck. Will check it out this weekend and send it.

[Donnie]

Thanks! I appreciate it!

[MtKen]

Donnie/KM:

Great idea & test!

I'd be interested in checking out how c90's ranked 1-5 do here & horses using actual odds with different benchmarks.