Andy Beyer's KOD

[Donnie]

Well in one of his annual run-ups to The Derby, Andrew Beyer is quoted:

It's hard to imagine that horses such as Dean's Kitten, Paddy O'Prado, Homeboykris and Stately Victor whispered, "I'm ready for the Derby!" to their respective trainers this spring. Dean's Kitten has raced once on dirt, losing by 34 lengths. Paddy O'Prado is a turf runner who has won a single race in his career. Homeboykris hasn't raced since February and hasn't won since October. Stately Victor beat a poor field in slow time over a synthetic track in Keeneland's Blue Grass Stakes, and he's 0 for 3 lifetime on dirt. Knowledgeable, successful trainers manage all of these horses. Why are they making these questionable choices?

I am now expecting one of these mentioned above to win!!

Here is the entire article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/26/AR2010042601855.html?nav=rss

[tbrown]

He was a guest on ATR today. He asked Steve Byk who he liked in the Derby. Steve went on and on about his pick, citing this and that as to why the horse had a solid shot, and was really "into" his reply. When he was finished, Andy replied, "No, really. Who do you like?":D

[km]

Donnie, that happened to Steve Crist the year that Giacomo won. He was asked on his yearly blog, "if you could toss out the four worst horses, that have absolutely no chance, who would they be?". Giacomo and whoever finished second were among his foursome and the exacta was massive.

I have to wonder if the blog questioner really wanted the losers, or was he actually prodding to get exaactly what you are thinking might happen to Beyer above ;) To his credit, Crist likes to tell that story and gets a good laugh every time.

I'm playing a $1 exa box on those four Beyer toss outs. If it hits, we split and party in Vegas.

[Donnie]

Haven't had a chance to take a good look at the race yet, but the local media and some of the locals sent down to blog are reporting back some good info about the Iowa Horse. It obviously hasn't hit the main stream media and I am hoping it never will. I am also hoping for some rain....cause the PP's tell one story, the bloggers are telling another.

[DanG]

He better hope Paddy O'Prado doesn’t like the dirt / mud. No horse in Kentucky is more fit / or feeling better then this bomber. He wouldn’t be the first animal who was only asked to stretch his legs in that lone dirt start as a first time starter.

484 PED says there is a punchers chance and as all HTR players know (and people watching him work say) he is dead fit.

Another positive imo; it’s often a tell of pending improvement when a one-run type like this suddenly starts reversing his energy pattern. He is showing MUCH more speed in the mornings and afternoon then I ever dreamed he would have as a 2yo.

He hates the dirt / mud; gets shut off in the cavalry charge / Gupta bets him :D etc…all can happen, but it won’t be the distance and / or lack of conditioning that gets this colt.

[Mayo]

I must say, looking at the raw numbers, K ratings and such, this is without a doubt the worst Derby field on paper I have seen in my 40 years of watching horse racing. Many of these will be in the claiming ranks (or worse) by the fall.

Dan G probably has the the stats to prove it. Anyway good luck to all. I am probably going to sit this one out and just watch. No betting.

Mayo